Brussels lifts Spain growth to 2.4%

The European Commission raised Spain’s 2026 economic growth forecast to 2.4% on May 21, lifting it by one-tenth of a percentage point from its autumn projection and setting Spain apart from most of the bloc as growth elsewhere slowed. The Commission said Spain’s economy would remain “strong” in 2026, though it also warned that the conflict in the Middle East was feeding a new energy shock across Europe. Spain’s forecast now stands well above the euro area’s 0.9% growth rate and the EU-wide 1.1% figure in the Commission’s Spring 2026 Economic Forecast. ### Why did Brussels raise Spain when it cut much of Europe? The Commission’s May 21 forecast said Spain’s real GDP would “remain strong in 2026,” even as it described a broader European slowdown driven by higher energy prices, weaker sentiment and softer demand. Spain was one of the few major economies to receive an upward revision for 2026, with the forecast moving from 2.3% in the autumn to 2.4% now. (economy-finance.ec.europa.eu) Valdis Dombrovskis, the European commissioner for economy, presented the spring forecasts in Brussels on May 21 as the Commission cut its 2026 outlook for the euro area to 0.9% and for the EU to 1.1%. Spanish media, citing the Commission’s tables, reported that Spain remained the fastest-growing large economy in the bloc under the new projections. (economy-finance.ec.europa.eu) ### How far ahead of the euro area is Spain now? The Commission’s headline numbers put Spain at 2.4% growth in 2026, compared with 0.9% for the euro area and 1.1% for the EU as a whole. RTVE said that pace meant Spain would grow at nearly three times the euro area rate this year. (economy-finance.ec.europa.eu) El Confidencial reported on May 21 that Brussels not only avoided cutting Spain’s 2026 projection despite the Middle East crisis, but raised it by one-tenth. El País separately reported that the Commission worsened “almost all” of its other major forecasts, particularly on inflation, while still nudging Spain higher. (economy-finance.ec.europa.eu) ### What did Brussels say about Spain’s deficit? The Commission also projected Spain’s public deficit at 2.4% in 2026, according to reporting that cited the spring forecast tables. That keeps Spain below the EU’s 3% reference threshold even as Brussels expects wider deficits for the euro area and EU overall in 2026. (elconfidencial.com) The broader Commission forecast put the euro area deficit at 3.3% of GDP in 2026 and the EU deficit at 3.5%. Those bloc-wide figures underscore the contrast between Spain’s stronger growth outlook and a still-elevated fiscal backdrop across Europe. (elconfidencial.com) ### What is still weighing on the outlook? The Commission said on May 21 that the conflict in the Middle East had triggered “a new energy shock” that was weakening activity and reigniting inflation pressures across Europe. Its spring forecast lifted euro area inflation to 3.0% in 2026 and EU inflation to 3.1%. (economy-finance.ec.europa.eu) Spain’s country page said growth would decelerate gradually over the forecast horizon because of that adverse external backdrop. The same page described domestic demand and labor-market resilience as supporting activity, even as external risks mounted. (economy-finance.ec.europa.eu) ### Where can readers check the numbers themselves? The European Commission published both the Spring 2026 Economic Forecast and its Spain country page on May 21. Those documents contain the headline GDP, inflation and deficit projections for 2025 through 2027, and they are the reference point for any further revisions the Commission makes in its next forecast cycle. (economy-finance.ec.europa.eu)