Big‑box leasing is rebounding
Large warehouse leasing is recovering as tenants consolidate into automation‑ready buildings and shift to lower‑cost inland locations—demand now rewards robotics‑friendly, 24/7 operations. That trend is driving stratified rents: future‑proof assets command premiums while legacy stock lags. (archdaily.com)
Q4 2025 Inland Empire direct vacancy hit 7.2% and total availability climbed to 12.7% while average asking rent stabilized at $1.00 per sq. ft. per month NNN (≈$12/yr). (kidder.com)) CBRE’s Q4 2025 figures show the IE East vacancy sitting at 8.5% and the IE West at 6.0%, reflecting submarket dispersion even as overall leasing activity continues. (cbre.com)) Major occupiers are still consolidating: Amazon signed multiple >1 million‑sq.ft. leases in Southern California, including a reported ~1.2M‑sq.ft. deal and another Inland Empire commitment reported at ~4.1M sq. ft. in recent transactions. (commercialobserver.com)) 3PLs and contract logistics operators are converting those large blocks into automation-first operations—GXO announced Robots‑as‑a‑Service pilots with Reflex Robotics in 2024 and a multi‑year deployment agreement with Agility Robotics in 2024–25. (gxo.com)) Prologis’ 2026 Supply Chain Outlook—based on a 1,816‑executive survey—identifies AI, automation and energy resilience as top investment priorities driving demand for robotics‑ready, power‑rich shells. (prologis.getbynder.com)) Market pricing is diverging: Avison Young shows Los Angeles Class A rents fell ~14.3% versus 25–30% declines in Class B/C, and architecture firms report a typical automation‑ready shell premium of roughly 0.5–2% on initial pricing. (avisonyoung.us)) Landlords in softer submarkets are responding with concessions—free‑rent periods and expanded tenant‑improvement allowances are increasingly used to secure large users—while industry guides show TIAs remain the standard vehicle for landlord‑funded fit‑outs. (info.siteselectiongroup.com) Under ASC 842, landlord TI allowances affect tenant accounting by reducing the tenant’s right‑of‑use asset, a factor that occupiers and their CFOs explicitly weigh when negotiating automation capex sharing. (legalclarity.org)) JLL’s tenant demand study found 3PL, logistics and distribution demand rose about 13% year‑over‑year as occupiers prefer shorter renewal horizons and operational flexibility, prompting landlords to deploy flexible expansion options and staged rent structures to preserve retention. (jll.com))
