Bab al‑Mandeb at risk
Iran has warned it may close the Bab al‑Mandeb Strait if the US and Israel escalate, threatening a vital Red Sea link that handles large volumes of global oil shipments. A closure would force ships to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope — adding transit time, higher freight and insurance costs — and analysts say Europe, especially the UK, is especially exposed to the fallout. Meanwhile the US has paused strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure until April 6 to allow diplomacy, but markets stayed volatile after Tehran rejected a US peace proposal. (ndtv.com) (timesofindia.indiatimes.com) (theguardian.com) (cbsnews.com) (markets.financialcontent.com)
The Bab al‑Mandeb handled about 4.1 million barrels per day of crude and petroleum liquids in 2024 and averaged about 4.2 million b/d in the first half of 2025, according to U.S. EIA chokepoints data. (eia.gov) Rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope is adding roughly 10–15 days to voyages compared with Trans‑Suez routings, a figure carriers and logistics groups have used to recalibrate schedules since the Red Sea disruptions resumed. (gcca.org) Industry analyses show an Aframax tanker re‑routing via the Cape can add about $932,905 in incremental costs per voyage and in some cases extend tanker transit times from roughly 16 to 32 days. (maritimemag.com) Major mutual insurers issued notices canceling war‑risk cover for Persian Gulf and adjacent waters, removing routine P&I protections for many shipowners and charterers. (londonpandi.com) War‑risk premiums for Red Sea transits have surged into the 0.5%–1% range of vessel value in recent pricing windows, which can amount to roughly $0.5m–$1m extra per $100m ship for a single trip. (shipuniverse.com) Leading container lines including Maersk, CMA CGM and Hapag‑Lloyd have publicly suspended or rerouted Trans‑Suez and Strait transits and shifted affected services via the Cape of Good Hope, according to company advisories and industry press. (maersk.com) Markets reacted sharply when Tehran rejected Washington’s 15‑point proposal: Brent futures jumped about 5.7% toward $108/bbl and WTI rose roughly 4.6% to $94.48 on March 26 amid renewed “risk‑off” trading. (cnbc.com) The U.S. announced an extension of its pause on strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure until April 6, a pause officials said was intended to permit further diplomatic exchanges even as Tehran publicly rejected the proposal. (cbsnews.com)
