China talks cite $14.9B farm loss

China’s Ministry of Commerce said on May 16 that recent U.S.-China economic consultations produced what it called “positive outcomes,” including preliminary consensus on tariff arrangements, agricultural market access and aircraft trade. The ministry said the two sides also agreed to set up trade and investment councils and continue talks on the details. (mofcom.gov.cn) A separate study published May 20 put a number on one of the costs of the tariff fight, estimating U.S. agricultural exporters lost $14.9 billion in annualized sales to China from March 2025 through February 2026. (agri-pulse.com) The Chinese statement matters because it bundled several strands of the trade relationship into one account: tariffs, non-tariff barriers, farm purchases and aviation supply. (english.gov.cn) The farm-loss estimate matters because it shows how much trade was disrupted even before negotiators finished working through the latest round of talks. ### What did China say was actually agreed? China’s Ministry of Commerce said the two sides reached five areas of initial outcomes during recent consultations. Those included continuing earlier understandings, forming “positive consensus” on tariff arrangements, creating trade and investment councils, addressing some agricultural market-access issues and advancing cooperation tied to aircraft purchases and engine supply. (mofcom.gov.cn) The ministry said the trade council would discuss tariff reductions on specific products and that the two sides had agreed in principle to lower tariffs on products of concern on an equivalent scale. It also said both governments would work on non-tariff barriers affecting agricultural trade, with Washington addressing Chinese concerns on dairy, aquatic products, bonsai exports and avian-influenza-free zone recognition, and Beijing addressing U.S. concerns on beef facility registration and poultry exports from some U.S. states. (mofcom.gov.cn) ### Where does the $14.9 billion figure come from? A May 20 Agri-Pulse report cited a new analysis by economists at North Dakota State University estimating that U.S. agricultural exporters lost $14.9 billion in sales to China on an annualized basis because of Chinese retaliatory tariffs. (english.gov.cn) The study covered March 2025 through February 2026. Soybeans accounted for $6.8 billion of that shortfall, according to the report. Beef and cotton each lost more than $1 billion in exports, tree nuts lost nearly that much and corn lost $333 million. Agri-Pulse said the estimate exceeded the annualized losses recorded during the 2018-2019 U.S.-China trade conflict. (mofcom.gov.cn) ### How did tariffs become central again? Agri-Pulse said the losses followed a new round of tariff escalation after the Trump administration imposed additional duties on China and the two sides answered with retaliatory measures. The report cited Peterson Institute of International Economics data showing China’s trade-weighted average tariffs on U.S. goods peaked at nearly 150% before an October truce in Busan reduced them. (agri-pulse.com) China’s commerce ministry said on February 25 that the United States was still pursuing a Section 301 investigation related to China’s implementation of the Phase One trade agreement and warned it would take “all necessary measures” if Washington moved ahead with new restrictions. (agri-pulse.com) That ministry statement also said the two sides had already held five rounds of economic and trade consultations since last year. ### What about aircraft and rare earths? The May 16 ministry statement said China and the United States reached arrangements concerning China’s purchase of aircraft from the United States and U.S. guarantees for the supply of aircraft engines and related parts to China. It did not provide quantities, manufacturers or delivery dates. (agri-pulse.com) The same public summary did not spell out a resolution on rare earths. Based on the ministry’s published account, rare earths were not listed among the five initial outcomes announced on May 16, while tariff details and other unresolved items were still under consultation. That is an inference from the official summary rather than a separately stated ministry conclusion. (mofcom.gov.cn) ### What happens next? The Ministry of Commerce said both sides were still consulting on the details of the outcomes already reached. It said the two countries’ economic and trade teams would work to “finalize the outcomes at an early date” and implement them in line with the consensus of the two heads of state. (english.gov.cn) (mofcom.gov.cn)