EIA expects record industrial gas use

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said on May 15 that it expects industrial natural gas consumption to keep rising through 2027, extending a run of annual records as manufacturing demand strengthens. The agency said industrial use averaged 23.6 billion cubic feet per day in 2025, topping the previous record of 23.4 Bcf/d set in 2023. In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, released May 12, EIA said consumption should increase again in 2026 and 2027. The forecast ties that increase to a modest rise in the natural gas-weighted manufacturing index. ### How high is industrial gas demand already? Industrial natural gas consumption averaged 23.6 Bcf/d in 2025, according to EIA, making last year the highest annual level on record. The agency said that was about 1% above the previous record reached in 2023. The May 2026 outlook says industrial demand will “climb to record highs through 2027,” though the Today in Energy note summarized the direction more clearly than the topline STEO page summarized the exact annual path. (eia.gov) EIA attributed the increase to slightly stronger manufacturing activity in industries that use significant amounts of gas. ### What is EIA saying is driving the increase? EIA said the natural gas-weighted manufacturing index is expected to rise slightly in both 2026 and 2027. That index tracks output in industrial sectors that consume relatively large amounts of natural gas, making it a proxy for fuel demand from factories and processing plants. (eia.gov) The agency did not frame the forecast as a weather story. Instead, the May 15 analysis linked the increase to industrial activity, which matters because industrial demand tends to be steadier than power-sector demand and can hold up even when seasonal electricity loads change. That last point is an inference from the sector mix, not a direct EIA statement. (eia.gov) ### Where does this fit in the broader U.S. gas market? Lower 48 marketed natural gas production averaged 117.2 Bcf/d in the first quarter of 2026, EIA said, and the agency expects production to average 118.9 Bcf/d this year and 124.0 Bcf/d in 2027. EIA said higher crude prices are supporting associated gas output later in 2026. (eia.gov) At the same time, EIA has also projected growth in other major demand categories, including exports and electricity use. The agency’s natural gas reports page highlights an outlook for U.S. natural gas exports to grow nearly 30% by 2027 as LNG facilities ramp up, adding to competition for supply across the market. ### Why does this matter for power markets and summer operations? (eia.gov) Summer gas prices and generator fuel access become more sensitive when multiple demand sources rise at once. EIA’s published note did not say record industrial demand would constrain generators or narrow outage windows, but higher industrial use alongside growing exports and power demand would leave less slack in the market if heat-driven demand spikes. (eia.gov) That is an inference drawn from EIA’s supply-and-demand forecasts. For utilities, large industrial users and project operators, that means fuel procurement and maintenance scheduling may face tighter timing if summer loads surge. The agency’s data support the underlying setup — stronger industrial demand in 2026 and 2027 and a market that is also absorbing higher production, export and electricity demand — even if EIA did not spell out operational advice. (eia.gov) ### What should readers watch next? The May 12 Short-Term Energy Outlook is the current EIA baseline for U.S. gas supply and demand, and the agency said its next monthly STEO release is due on June 9, 2026. That update will show whether EIA changes its 2026 and 2027 industrial demand path, production outlook or broader natural gas balances. (eia.gov 1) (eia.gov 2)