Fertiliser and beef costs rise
Higher fertiliser prices, partly linked to geopolitical tensions, are pushing up upstream farm costs and contributing to a rise in beef prices in parts of the U.S. (spectrumlocalnews.com) Local reporting notes beef is continuing to climb even as household incomes stagnate in some regions. (kten.com) The combination points to persistent food inflation pressure beyond the headline grocery categories.
Beef prices are still climbing in parts of Texas and Oklahoma even after eggs and some other grocery headlines cooled, and local stations in Austin and Texoma are tying that rise to costs farmers face long before a steak reaches a store shelf. One of the biggest pressure points is fertilizer. (spectrumlocalnews.com, kten.com) Fertilizer is the crop world’s fuel tank: ranchers need hay, corn, and pasture, and growers need fertilizer to produce all three. When fertilizer jumps, feed and forage get more expensive, and that cost moves into cattle production months before consumers see it at the meat case. (agrilife.org, spectrumlocalnews.com) Texas A&M AgriLife said last month that fertilizer prices in 2026 were already 10% to 20% higher than a year earlier after rising through the second half of 2024 and throughout 2025. The same outlook said global trade and policy moves can change those prices quickly, which makes spring farm budgets hard to lock in. (agrilife.org) The jump has been sharpest in nitrogen products, which matter because nitrogen helps grow the grasses and grain that feed cattle. DTN’s late-March survey showed urea up 35% from a month earlier to $826 a ton and anhydrous ammonia up 20% to $1,035 a ton, the first time anhydrous topped $1,000 a ton since April 2023. (dtnpf.com) Part of that story starts far from Texas. The World Bank said fertilizer prices rose in 2025 because of strong demand, trade restrictions, production shortfalls, sanctions on Belarus, and export restrictions from China, and it warned prices would stay above their 2015 to 2019 average even if they stabilized in 2026. (worldbank.org, agrilife.org) The beef side was already tight before fertilizer flared again. The United States Department of Agriculture said the country had 86.2 million cattle and calves on January 1, 2026, with 27.6 million beef cows, down 1% from a year earlier, and a 2025 calf crop of 32.9 million, down 2%. (nass.usda.gov) That smaller herd means there is less room for shocks. Spectrum’s Texas reporting said wildfires stretching across Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas killed cattle and damaged ranches, while the screwworm-related block on beef imports from Mexico added another squeeze to supply. (spectrumlocalnews.com) At the consumer level, federal data show beef is already expensive before any new spring costs fully land. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis page for Bureau of Labor Statistics data shows the U.S. average price series for regular 100% ground beef was updated on March 11, 2026, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics says those monthly figures are collected as part of its consumer price work. (fred.stlouisfed.org, bls.gov) Texas food businesses are also dealing with higher transport costs at the same time. Spectrum reported this week that Texas diesel averaged $5.16 a gallon, up from $3.48 a month earlier, which raises the cost of moving feed to ranches and beef to restaurants and stores. (spectrumlocalnews.com) Put together, this is why beef can keep rising even when shoppers feel tapped out. A smaller national herd, wildfire losses, import disruptions, pricier fertilizer, and pricier diesel are all pushing from different parts of the supply chain at once. (nass.usda.gov, spectrumlocalnews.com, dtnpf.com, spectrumlocalnews.com)
