TransUnion Forecasts Positive Loan Origination Growth in 2026
A new forecast from TransUnion shows continued positive momentum for loan originations in 2026. The credit reporting agency's outlook suggests a period of moderate expansion across various lending categories. The findings were released in conjunction with TransUnion's Q4 2025 Credit Industry Insights Report.
- The forecast anticipates unsecured personal loans will see the most significant growth in 2026, with originations projected to increase by 11.2%. Mortgage originations are also expected to rise, with purchases up 4.0% and refinances increasing by 4.2%. - In contrast, auto loan originations are predicted to decline by 1.5% in 2026. This follows a year of gains that were partly driven by consumers making purchases in 2025 ahead of anticipated tariffs and the expiration of certain EV tax credits. - The growth in unsecured personal loans is built on a record-setting 2025, which saw total balances climb to an all-time high of $276 billion in the fourth quarter. FinTech lenders have become a major force in this segment, accounting for 42% of originations in Q3 2025, up from about a third the previous year. - While originations are growing, consumer credit health shows some signs of stress; 60+ day past due mortgage delinquencies reached 1.51% in Q4 2025. This marked the 15th consecutive quarter of year-over-year increases in mortgage delinquencies. - Home-equity lending has been a bright spot, with originations increasing 14.3% year-over-year in Q3 2025. This was the sixth straight quarter of expansion, indicating homeowners are increasingly tapping into their accumulated equity. - For the broader Financial Institutions Group (FIG), these lending trends coincide with a dynamic M&A environment. Deal value in financial services rose roughly 40% in 2025, driven by a need for scale and technology modernization, with private credit playing an increasingly disruptive role in funding transactions.
