March CPI Could Look Hot

Friday morning’s inflation report could look much worse than the last few months, even if oil has already started to come back down. The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the March Consumer Price Index on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, and economists surveyed by FactSet expect a 0.93% monthly jump after just 0.3% in February. (bls.gov) (morningstar.com) The reason is timing. March prices were collected during the same month that the Iran war sent oil sharply higher, so the report can capture the spike even if traders are now looking at lower prices after this week’s two-week ceasefire announcement. (morningstar.com 1) (morningstar.com 2) Gasoline is the clearest example. MarketWatch, via Morningstar, said the national average price for regular gas reached $4.15 last week, up from just under $3 before the conflict erupted, which is the first time the national average has topped $4 since 2022. (morningstar.com) That surge alone can make the whole report look hot, because energy moves fast and hits almost every household at once. Bank of America analysts told Morningstar they think energy prices rose 10.6% in March, a one-month swing big enough to dominate the headline number. (morningstar.com) Economists now expect the annual inflation rate to jump to 3.7% in March from 2.4% in February. They also expect core inflation, which strips out food and energy to show the slower-moving trend underneath, to rise 0.3% in March and 2.7% from a year earlier, up from 2.5% in February. (morningstar.com) That split matters because headline inflation is the number most people feel first, while core inflation is the number the Federal Reserve watches to judge whether price pressure is spreading beyond gas stations and grocery aisles. Even with energy excluded, economists still see March core prices running hotter than February. (morningstar.com 1) (morningstar.com 2) Food is part of the story too, because higher fuel costs raise the price of moving produce from farms to warehouses to stores. Business Insider reported on April 6 that produce prices were already rising as the war pushed transportation costs higher. (businessinsider.com) Travel costs can move the same way. When jet fuel and other energy inputs rise, airlines and other travel businesses often try to pass those costs through, which is one reason Business Insider said cars, air travel, and food were already showing inflation pressure before the March report arrived. (businessinsider.com) There is a second force underneath the energy shock: tariffs. Morningstar said economists expect trade policy to keep pushing up goods prices, which means March inflation may not be just a one-category oil story. (morningstar.com) That is why a cooler oil market in April would not automatically rescue the March number. A monthly inflation report is a snapshot of what households were paying during that month, not a forecast of what prices will do next week. (bls.gov) (morningstar.com) The Federal Reserve is likely to treat a hot March report as one more reason to wait. Morningstar said analysts widely expect the central bank to leave interest rates unchanged, especially after a strong March jobs report, and MarketWatch said the Fed would be reluctant to cut if oil stays well above prewar levels. (morningstar.com 1) (morningstar.com 2) So the surprise on Friday may be less about a new inflation outbreak than about a delayed bill arriving all at once. March was the month when war-driven energy costs hit gas pumps, shipping routes, produce aisles, and travel prices, and the Consumer Price Index is built to show exactly that kind of lagged shock. (bls.gov) (morningstar.com)