NOAA predicts below-normal hurricane season 2026

NOAA said on May 21 that it expects a below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, citing a developing El Niño and other atmospheric conditions that tend to limit storm formation in the basin. The agency put the odds of a below-normal season at 55%, compared with a 35% chance of near-normal activity and a 10% chance of an above-normal season. (noaa.gov) NOAA said the Atlantic season runs from June 1 through November 30. The forecast does not mean no risk. Federal officials said one storm can still cause severe damage, flooding and loss of life, and they urged households in hurricane-prone areas to review emergency plans before the season begins. (noaa.gov) ### How quiet is “below normal” in NOAA’s forecast? NOAA forecast 8 to 14 named storms in the Atlantic this year, with 3 to 6 hurricanes and 1 to 3 major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher. The agency said a typical season produces about 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. (noaa.gov) The Climate Prediction Center said the outlook covers the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America. NOAA described the forecast as a guide to overall seasonal activity rather than a prediction of where or when storms will strike. (noaa.gov) ### Why is NOAA tying this year’s forecast to El Niño? NOAA said El Niño is likely to emerge soon and persist through much of the season. The agency said El Niño increases upper-level winds over the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic, a pattern that can disrupt storm development. (noaa.gov) The Climate Prediction Center said on May 14 there was an 82% chance El Niño would develop during May through July and a 96% chance it would continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter. NOAA also cited weaker West African monsoon conditions and atmospheric stability as factors expected to hold down activity. (cpc.ncep.noaa.gov) ### If the forecast is lower, why are officials still warning people to prepare? NOAA officials said seasonal totals do not determine local risk. A single landfalling storm can define a season for a community, even in years with fewer overall systems. (noaa.gov) The National Hurricane Center has already begun issuing its routine tropical weather outlooks ahead of the June 1 start of the season. That means residents, businesses and local governments can track disturbances even before a storm forms. (cpc.ncep.noaa.gov) ### What should households watch over the next few weeks? June 1 is the formal start of the Atlantic hurricane season, but NOAA and the National Hurricane Center will keep updating conditions as ocean temperatures and large-scale climate patterns evolve. (noaa.gov) The agency’s May outlook is the first broad seasonal forecast, not the last word on risk. NOAA’s forecast pages and the National Hurricane Center’s daily products will be the main federal sources to watch as the season opens. The next practical milestone is the start of routine in-season monitoring on June 1, when any early-season Atlantic development would begin drawing regular public advisories. (usatoday.com) (cpc.ncep.noaa.gov) (noaa.gov)