Kalshi: integrity and leverage

Kalshi suspended and fined three congressional candidates this week after the platform said they traded on their own elections. (politico.com) Kalshi said on April 22 that Minnesota state Sen. Matt Klein, Texas Republican candidate Ezekiel Enriquez, and Virginia candidate Mark Moran were each banned for five years under rules against trading on contests they can influence. Klein agreed to pay $539.85, Enriquez $784.20, and Kalshi assessed Moran $6,229.30 after saying he would not settle. (cnbc.com) Kalshi’s rulebook already bars candidates, officeholders, campaign workers, and some government employees from trading on election markets tied to nonpublic information or direct influence. The company says it uses third-party screening, employment data, geolocation data, and internal investigations to freeze accounts and refer suspected misconduct to law enforcement in some cases. (kalshi.com) At the same time, Kalshi and Polymarket are moving into perpetual futures, or “perps,” contracts that do not expire and let traders keep positions open as long as they meet margin requirements. Kalshi’s planned launch for U.S. users was reported for April 27, and Polymarket opened early access this week. (deadspin.com, cnbc.com) Polymarket’s preview showed crypto, metals, and stock trades with leverage of up to 10 times a user’s collateral, while reporting on Kalshi’s rollout tied the product to Kinetic Markets, an affiliate cleared to offer margin trading as a futures commission merchant. Those features move both companies beyond yes-or-no event contracts and closer to mainstream derivatives venues. (deadspin.com, cnbc.com) Perpetual futures are a staple of crypto trading outside the United States because they let users bet on price moves without waiting for a contract to expire. CNBC cited CoinGecko data showing the top centralized crypto exchanges handled $86.2 trillion in perps volume in 2025, up 47% from the prior year. (cnbc.com) That leaves Kalshi trying to do two things at once: show Washington it can police insider trading on political markets, and show traders it can offer higher-volume leveraged products. Politico reported the candidate suspensions arrived as lawmakers and regulators were already debating how prediction markets should be supervised. (politico.com) Kalshi’s enforcement chief, Bobby DeNault, said “bad actors will try to cheat” and said regulated exchanges have to keep updating their controls. Moran answered on X that his $100 trade was meant to draw attention to the company and that, if elected, he would pursue penalties against it. (politico.com, cnbc.com) The result is a prediction-market business that is starting to look more like a derivatives exchange, with tighter surveillance on one side and more leverage on the other. That combination usually brings more attention from regulators, especially when political betting and retail margin trading are expanding at the same time. (politico.com, cnbc.com)