Eric Kimberling warns stockpiling persists
- Eric Kimberling said companies are still moving away from just-in-time inventory and toward stockpiling, arguing repeated supply shocks have made larger buffers a standard procurement choice again. - Recent trade and shipping strain backs that up: a Guangzhou bicycle factory said aluminum costs rose 30%, logistics costs climbed 15%, and some export business was put on hold. - Insurers and advisers now describe “just-in-case” inventory, supplier diversification, and onshoring as mainstream responses to tariffs and geopolitical risk. (ajg.com)
Eric Kimberling says the just-in-time era has not snapped back. Companies are still carrying extra inventory because repeated disruptions made stockpiling a normal operating choice again. (youtube.com) Kimberling, a digital transformation adviser and chief executive of Third Stage Consulting, framed the shift as a move from lean inventories to bigger buffers after pandemic-era shortages and ongoing volatility. (thirdstage-consulting.com) (youtube.com) Just-in-time means keeping only small amounts of stock on hand to cut storage costs and free up cash. Just-in-case means holding more raw materials or finished goods so production can keep moving when suppliers, ports, or freight lanes fail. (ajg.com) That change is showing up well beyond one commentator’s video. Gallagher said in January 2026 that companies are increasing stockpiles, adding suppliers, and expanding onshore or near-shore sourcing as geopolitical risk and tariff uncertainty grow. (ajg.com) McKinsey has reported a similar pattern: companies say they want more regional sourcing, but the most common immediate response to disruption has been higher inventories of components and finished goods. (mckinsey.com) The pressure is not theoretical in China. The South China Morning Post reported on March 25, 2026 that some factories were cutting output as conflict-linked shipping disruption and higher energy and raw-material costs hit margins. (scmp.com) One Guangzhou bicycle factory told the paper it had put most export business on hold, canceled Iran orders, and seen aluminum costs rise 30% and logistics costs about 15%. Another supplier said shipping costs had surged 50% to 100%. (scmp.com) Those numbers help explain why procurement teams are accepting higher carrying costs that finance chiefs once resisted. A warehouse full of parts ties up cash, but an empty warehouse can stop sales altogether when freight delays stretch for weeks. (youtube.com) (ajg.com) The shift is also changing where companies buy. Deloitte said recent United States trade policy changes could push more reshoring and alter nearshoring and global sourcing decisions across manufacturing supply chains. (deloitte.com) APQC’s 2025 supply chain research, based on 379 participants across more than 22 industries, found companies entering 2025 with resilience and disruption management high on the agenda. (apqc.org) Kimberling’s warning lands because the old model was built for predictable transport, stable trade rules, and cheap delay-free sourcing. In 2026, many companies are buying as if the next shortage is a timing problem, not a remote possibility. (youtube.com) (ajg.com)
