West snowpack still below normal

Snowpack is the West’s warm-season savings account. It stores winter water, then releases it slowly into rivers, reservoirs, farms, forests, and trail corridors. This year the account is still badly underfunded. The new wrinkle is that April storms bought some time in a few places — especially Montana — but they did not fix the larger deficit. (nrcs.usda.gov) ### What changed this week? The clearest new update came from USDA’s Natural Resources Conservation Service on May 7. Montana got near- to above-normal April precipitation, and cooler temperatures finally slowed the rapid melt that had defined much of winter 2025–26. That left a mixed map instead of a uniformly disastrous one — some Montana basins were near normal on May 1, while others were still far below it. (nrcs.usda.gov) ### So is the West still in trouble? Yes — basically because timing is not the same thing as recovery. The broader West had already taken a huge hit by early April. Drought.gov’s April 9 update said Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, and Wyoming all set record-low April 1 snow-water-equivalent values in the SNOTEL era, while California posted its second-lowest April 1 value. (drought.gov) ### Why didn’t April storms fix it? Because a late storm can slow the bleeding without replacing the blood. Snowpack depends on how much water gets stored as snow through the whole cold season, not just on whether a few spring systems drop fresh snow. In many western mountains this winter, warmth did two kinds of damage at once — storms fell as rain at lower and middle (drought.gov)(nrcs.usda.gov) ### Why does elevation matter so much? High terrain can still hang onto snow when valleys are bare. Montana’s own update makes that point pretty plainly — conditions varied a lot by aspect and elevation. So one basin can look respectable on paper while nearby lower-elevation terrain is already dry and exposed. That is why regional averages can hide what hikers, irrigators, or local water managers actually face on the ground. (nrcs.usda.gov) ### What does this mean for hikers? Low snowpack does not automatically mean an easy season. It often means an earlier melt, drier water sources, more exposed tread, and a faster handoff from snow hazards to fire and heat hazards. Backpacker’s recent Pacific Crest Trail reporting put some West Coast snowpack zones at just 4% of normal and warned that the Sierra may be easier to cross than usual, but water scarcity and wildfire disruptions could become the bigger problem. (backpacker.com) ### What about water supply? That is the real stakes story. Snowpack is not just scenery — it is delayed runoff. Drought.gov said many spring and summer streamflow forecast points across the West now face elevated odds of record-low runoff, and much of the Colorado River Basin is forecast below 30% of average. NSIDC’s April update also said snow water equivalent remained well below average in most western states by month’s end. (drought.gov) ### Does Montana escape the pattern? Not really. Montana looks less uniformly bad than parts of the interior West, but “less bad” is not the same as healthy. NRCS said May 1 basin values still ranged from 40% to 100% of median. That spread tells you the state got a pause, not a reset. (nrcs.usda.gov)hange the season’s verdict. For the West, and even for relatively better-looking pockets like parts of Montana, the 2026 story is still early loss, thin reserves, and a dry-risk summer ahead. (nrcs.usda.gov)