Markets flag Germany GDP, Core PCE data

Germany’s Federal Statistical Office said on May 22 that first-quarter gross domestic product rose 0.3% from the prior quarter, confirming an earlier estimate and giving traders one of the week’s main European data points. The release came alongside fresh UK figures on retail sales and public borrowing and ahead of U.S. reports due on May 28 that include April personal income and outlays, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, and a second estimate of first-quarter GDP. Market participants have also been focused on rising business-cost indicators after S&P Global’s latest flash PMI signaled a renewed pickup in input-price pressures. ### Why are traders still watching Germany GDP if the number is already out? Destatis said on May 22 that Germany’s GDP rose 0.3% quarter on quarter in the first three months of 2026, matching the preliminary figure released on April 30. The office said exports of goods and services rose 3.3% from the previous quarter, while government final consumption expenditure increased 1.1%. (destatis.de) Ruth Brand, president of the Federal Statistical Office, said Germany “also began 2026 in positive territory” and cited stronger exports at the start of the year. Household final consumption, however, did not exceed the level of the fourth quarter of 2025, according to Destatis. ### What did the UK data add to the picture? The Office for National Statistics published April retail sales and April public sector finances on May 22, according to its release calendar. (destatis.de) The retail sales bulletin said the quantity of goods bought rose 0.5% in the three months to April compared with the three months to January. The ONS also published its April public sector finances bulletin the same day, keeping borrowing and debt figures in view for sterling markets and gilt traders. (destatis.de) The agency’s release calendar lists the next retail sales publication for June 19. ### Which U.S. releases are next, and why do they matter for rates? The Bureau of Economic Analysis says it will publish GDP, second estimate, for the first quarter of 2026 and Personal Income and Outlays for April 2026 at 8:30 a.m. (ons.gov.uk) ET on May 28. The personal income and outlays report contains the personal consumption expenditures price indexes, including the core measure that excludes food and energy. The U.S. Department of Labor said weekly jobless claims for the week ended May 16 were 209,000, and the series is released every Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET. That means claims will arrive the same morning as the BEA reports, giving investors a cluster of labor, growth and inflation data before month-end. ### What is the inflation signal from PMI surveys? S&P Global’s PMI site said its flash U.S. manufacturing PMI for May rose to 55.3, a 48-month high. (bea.gov) The same page said its flash releases pointed to subdued growth alongside a price surge, and listed stronger input-price readings across several major economies. Bloomberg reported on May 21 that U.S. manufacturing activity expanded by the most in four years as customers moved to get ahead of mounting price pressures tied to the Iran war. (dol.gov) That report said the flash May factory PMI rose 0.8 point to 55.3. The social-media claim that input prices have risen 18 points since February to 80 could not be independently confirmed from the official S&P Global page reviewed here, which did not display that exact series value. (pmi.spglobal.com) ### When is the next Germany consumer-confidence reading? Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions said its “NIM Consumer Climate powered by GfK” survey was scheduled for publication on May 22 at 8:00 a.m. CET and next on June 25 at 8:00 a.m. CET. The survey is based on about 2,000 monthly consumer interviews conducted on behalf of the European Commission. May 28 is the next key date on the calendar. (bloomberg.com) BEA will release April personal income and outlays and second-estimate first-quarter GDP at 8:30 a.m. ET, while the Labor Department is due to publish weekly unemployment claims at the same time. (bea.gov) (nim.org)