Egg prices dip, sourcing stays rocky

Egg prices are easing in wholesale markets, but one of the biggest breakfast chains in America is still warning it may miss a promise it made 10 years ago. On April 8, the United States Department of Agriculture said national shell-egg prices were “steady to lower” with light demand and moderate to heavy supplies. (ams.usda.gov) That sounds backward until you split the egg business in two. A wholesale market is the price paid before eggs reach a grocery shelf or restaurant kitchen, and that price can fall even while buyers still worry about getting the exact kind of eggs they need. (ams.usda.gov) In the Midwest, the United States Department of Agriculture’s April 3 market overview put Large white eggs delivered to warehouses at $1.46 per dozen, down $0.39 in a week. In California, the same report put the Large benchmark at $1.74 per dozen, down $0.28. (ams.usda.gov) California’s cage-free market was dropping too. For the week of March 29 through April 4, the United States Department of Agriculture listed California cage-free Large white eggs at 122 cents per dozen, down 52 cents from the prior report. (ams.usda.gov) The demand side has cooled fast. The United States Department of Agriculture’s weekly shell-egg demand indicator fell to negative 0.90 on April 8, down 6.8 points from the previous week, which means eggs were moving more slowly relative to current production and inventory. (ams.usda.gov) But restaurants do not buy “eggs” in the abstract. They buy a specification, and Chick-fil-A’s specification is cage-free eggs under a 2016 commitment to go 100 percent cage-free by 2026. (chick-fil-a.com) This week, Chick-fil-A said its ability to meet that 2026 deadline is “uncertain” because of “numerous industry dynamics” and “the significant impact the bird flu has had over the past several months.” The company also said it will keep serving cage-free eggs where state laws require them. (chick-fil-a.com) That gap between cheaper eggs and harder sourcing comes from how avian influenza hits supply chains. When bird flu reduces flocks, it does not remove every egg equally, and chains that need cage-free eggs from approved suppliers have fewer substitutes than a buyer willing to take any conventional shell egg on the spot market. (chick-fil-a.com) (esmis.nal.usda.gov) The United States Department of Agriculture tracks cage-free eggs separately for exactly that reason. Its monthly cage-free report breaks out flock size, lay rates, weekly production, and first-receiver pricing for non-organic and organic cage-free eggs instead of treating them as the same pool as conventional eggs. (esmis.nal.usda.gov) So the April story is not “egg problems are over.” It is that the broad market is loosening first, while a restaurant chain with a specific animal-welfare pledge is still telling customers that supply, regulation, and bird-flu damage have made the last mile much harder than the headline price suggests. (ams.usda.gov) (chick-fil-a.com)