Prediction Markets Inform Agency Strategy
A growing number of technology and agency leaders are using prediction markets to inform strategic decisions. These platforms, where participants bet on future outcomes, are being applied to campaign forecasts, client acquisition strategies, and M&A decisions.
- Internal prediction markets have been used by major tech companies for years; Google, for instance, has used them to forecast product launch dates and new office openings. - Research from institutions like Purdue University and Dartmouth has shown that well-designed prediction markets are often more accurate at forecasting than traditional methods like expert surveys. - A notable corporate use case involved Best Buy, which experimented with an internal market that successfully predicted a delay in a store opening in Shanghai, preventing financial loss. - The combined trading volume for two of the largest platforms, Polymarket and Kalshi, reportedly exceeded $37 billion in 2025, a significant increase from less than $100 million per month in early 2024. - Challenges can exist in corporate settings, where markets may be "thin" due to a limited number of participants, and prices can be affected by an "optimism bias" from employees invested in a project's success. - The entry of major financial institutions signals a maturation of the market; in 2024, Susquehanna International Group launched a dedicated prediction markets trading desk, a first on Wall Street. - The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) regulates some prediction market platforms, such as Kalshi, which offers contracts on a range of economic and financial events. - Beyond corporate strategy, these markets are used to generate probability data for a wide array of outcomes, including regulatory decisions, macroeconomic events, and the success of new technologies.
