30-year fixed near 6.4% through July

Norada Real Estate said on May 19 that 30-year fixed mortgage rates were hovering near 6.4% and were likely to remain elevated through May, June and July. The company’s latest 90-day forecast said buyers and refinancers should expect rates to stay in the low-to-mid-6% range absent a major economic shift. (noradarealestate.com) The call adds to a recent run of housing commentary pointing to persistent borrowing costs rather than a quick summer drop. VT Markets said a day earlier that April core consumer inflation was still running at 3.1% and that 30-year fixed rates were holding around 6.5%. (vtmarkets.net) ### How narrow is the range Norada is projecting? Norada Real Estate said the current 30-year fixed mortgage rate was likely between 6.37% and 6.46% in early May 2026. (fred.stlouisfed.org) The forecast said that range could persist over the next 90 days, with no “dramatic swings” expected unless broader economic conditions change materially. The same Norada forecast put 15-year fixed mortgage rates in a roughly 5.7% to 6.0% range. The firm said refinance rates could sometimes run 0.2 to 0.5 percentage point above purchase rates, though they were currently close together. (noradarealestate.com) ### Why are mortgage rates still staying this high? VT Markets said on May 18 that April core CPI remained elevated at 3.1%, a level it said helped keep 30-year fixed mortgage rates “sticky around 6.5%.” The firm said stronger-than-expected housing data could reduce the urgency for the Federal Reserve to cut rates soon. (noradarealestate.com) Freddie Mac’s 30-year fixed mortgage series, published through FRED, remains the market’s standard public benchmark for tracking weekly mortgage-rate moves. The data series notes that the survey is based on applications submitted to Freddie Mac from lenders across the country. (noradarealestate.com) ### What are builders saying about affordability right now? The National Association of Home Builders said on May 18 that builder confidence posted a modest gain in May even as buyers faced rising mortgage rates and economic uncertainty. The group said builders were also still dealing with elevated land, labor and construction costs. (vtmarkets.net) Robert Dietz, NAHB’s chief economist, said in the group’s May release that “significant affordability challenges persist,” while the organization tied those pressures in part to higher financing costs. That leaves mortgage rates as one of the main constraints on demand even when sentiment improves at the margin. (fred.stlouisfed.org) ### Does this forecast match broader market data? Freddie Mac’s survey history, as carried through FRED, shows 30-year fixed mortgage rates still well above the lows seen earlier in the decade. Norada’s projection of roughly 6.4% through July sits close to the current weekly range described in its own forecast and to the 6.5% level cited by VT Markets. (nahb.org) That does not make the forecast official market guidance. Norada is a real estate investment publisher, and VT Markets framed its comments in a market note tied to inflation and housing sentiment. But both sources point to the same near-term pattern: borrowing costs remain elevated rather than falling quickly into the summer. (nahb.org) ### What should readers watch next? Freddie Mac’s next weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey will offer the next direct check on whether 30-year fixed rates remain near 6.4% to 6.5%. The National Association of Home Builders’ May 18 release also keeps attention on incoming housing data as a test of whether affordability pressures are easing. (noradarealestate.com) Norada’s forecast page, published May 19, remains the clearest statement of its May-to-July outlook. Any change in inflation readings, Treasury yields or housing demand would be the next visible trigger for a move outside the narrow range it described. (fred.stlouisfed.org) (noradarealestate.com)