Study Links Grade Inflation to Lower Future Earnings
A new study links grade inflation in American schools to lower long-term earnings for students. The findings raise questions about the efficacy of current academic standards and suggest that high grades may not correlate with the real-world skills needed for success.
- The study, "Easy A's, Less Pay: The Long-Term Effects of Grade Inflation," was presented in February 2026 by economist Jeffrey Denning of the University of Texas at Austin, along with co-authors from RAND, the University of Maryland, and the University of Georgia. - Researchers found that when a teacher's grading is more lenient by 0.2 points on a 4.0 scale, their students collectively lose about $160,000 in lifetime earnings. - The study distinguishes between two types of grade inflation: "mean grade inflation," which raises grades across the board and is linked to negative long-term outcomes, and "passing grade inflation," which helps marginal students pass and can lead to short-term benefits like higher graduation rates. - The negative impact on future earnings is theorized to stem from students developing knowledge gaps and eroding confidence over time, leaving them with lower skills in college or the workplace. - This phenomenon occurs while average high school GPAs are rising; for instance, the average math GPA increased from 3.02 to 3.32 between 2010 and 2022. - The rise in grades contrasts with stagnating or declining student achievement on standardized tests like the ACT and the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP). - Students who experienced more lenient grading were not only likely to earn less but also less likely to pass subsequent courses, graduate from high school, or enroll in college. - While the findings are striking, the draft paper has not yet been published in a peer-reviewed journal and may be revised.
