Markets: $7T wiped out
Geopolitical fallout has erased roughly $7 trillion from global markets this quarter, while oil has surged—about +70% YTD to roughly $112/barrel—and gold is down ~16%, per market chatter (x.com). U.S. data show payrolls weakness (Feb jobs −92k, unemployment 4.4%), the S&P is off ~8.4–9% from January highs (P/E ~19x), Nasdaq ~−11% and BTC down ~24% YTD — yet some banks (Goldman) still forecast ~12% S&P EPS growth if disruptions are limited ( ).
Reuters’ March 27 “Take Five” roundup tied the market rout to the Iran war and listed the energy shock and geopolitical risk as the dominant drivers of Q1 market moves. (wmbdradio.com) Goldman Sachs’ equity-research outlook published in January projects a roughly 12% total return for the S&P 500 in 2026 and assumes S&P EPS growth of about 12.1% as a base case, with firm analysts outlining index targets in a 7,200–7,600 range. (goldmansachs.com) The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ March 6 employment release said nonfarm payrolls declined in February and attributed part of the weakness to a drop in health-care payrolls tied to strike activity while information and federal-government employment also continued to trend down. (bls.gov) Market internals showed sharp moves into late March: the S&P 500 hit a seven-month low of 6,368.85 on March 26 while the Dow fell roughly 793 points to close near 45,166.64 that same session. (cnbc.com) Crypto-market plumbing amplified the selloff around recent expiries: a $14.16 billion options expiry on March 27 coincided with forced liquidations that pushed Bitcoin toward the mid-$60,000s, and March 26 marked the first day in 2026 when major spot crypto ETFs recorded net outflows simultaneously. (247wallst.com) Fund flows shifted with headlines — Reuters reported the biggest weekly inflow to global equity funds in about 2½ months after a lull in strikes/de‑escalation hopes — while Brent crude traded around $112.57 on March 27 and gold, which peaked in late January near $5,400 an ounce, had retreated into the mid‑$4,000s by late March. (msn.com)
