China export pulse softens
A Reuters poll indicates China’s export momentum likely slowed in March as the Middle East war and energy shocks dampened demand (reuters.com). Analysts also say China’s economy remains skewed toward industrial output over consumer demand, and Spain’s prime minister described the bilateral trade deficit as “unsustainable” in public remarks (ianslive.in) (rtve.es).
China’s export boom likely cooled in March, with economists polled by Reuters expecting growth to slow sharply from the start of 2026. (money.usnews.com) The Reuters poll forecast March exports rising 8.6% from a year earlier in dollar terms, down from 21.8% growth in January and February. The same poll put March import growth at 11.2%, slower than the 19.8% pace in the combined first two months. (money.usnews.com) Analysts cited the Middle East war, higher energy prices and costlier transport after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, a route Reuters said carries about 20% of global oil and gas flows. Reuters said China’s March trade surplus is forecast to narrow to $108 billion from $214 billion in January and February. (money.usnews.com) The slowdown comes after a very strong opening to the year. China’s customs data showed total trade in the first two months of 2026 rose 18.3% from a year earlier, with exports up 19.2% and imports up 17.1%. (english.scio.gov.cn) Factory data for March still pointed to expansion. China’s official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index rose to 50.4 in March from 49.0 in February, moving back above the 50 line that separates expansion from contraction. (stats.gov.cn) Export orders tied to artificial intelligence hardware remained a support. Reuters said South Korea’s exports to China jumped 62.4% in March, helped by a 151.4% surge in global semiconductor shipments as memory prices rose and server demand stayed strong. (money.usnews.com) The debate around China’s economy is also shifting from headline export strength to what is driving it. Reuters said economists remain split on whether demand for chips and servers can keep offsetting weaker purchasing power abroad as fuel and input costs rise. (money.usnews.com) That imbalance surfaced in Europe on April 13, when Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez said the trade deficit with China was “unsustainable” over the medium and long term. RTVE said the deficit between Madrid and Beijing exceeded 42 billion euros in 2025, while Spain exported only about 8 billion euros to China, mainly chemicals, minerals and food. (rtve.es) Sánchez said Spain “needs China to open up so Europe does not have to close itself,” linking trade access to wider tariff tensions between the European Union and China. He also urged Beijing to use its influence with Russia and Iran to help end current conflicts. (rtve.es) China’s March trade data will show whether cheaper Chinese goods are still winning buyers fast enough to outrun the hit from war-driven energy costs. The answer now matters to Beijing’s growth outlook and to trading partners already pushing for a different balance. (money.usnews.com)
