NOAA forecasts 8-14 named storms

NOAA said on May 21 that the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be less active than average, with 8 to 14 named storms forecast across the basin. The agency said 3 to 6 of those storms are expected to become hurricanes, including 1 to 3 major hurricanes with winds of at least 111 mph. NOAA assigned a 55% chance to a below-normal season, a 35% chance to a near-normal season and a 10% chance to a near-above-normal season. The Atlantic season officially began on Monday, June 1, and runs through Nov. 30. ### Why is NOAA expecting fewer Atlantic storms this year? NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center said expected El Niño conditions were the main reason forecasters lowered the seasonal outlook. The agency said El Niño tends to increase upper-level winds over the tropical Atlantic, a pattern that can disrupt storm development. NOAA also cited weaker West African monsoon conditions, which can reduce the tropical waves that often serve as seeds for Atlantic storms. (cpc.ncep.noaa.gov) The May 14 ENSO diagnostic discussion said El Niño was likely to emerge soon, with an 82% chance during May-July 2026 and a 96% chance of continuing through the Northern Hemisphere winter. That outlook fed directly into NOAA’s hurricane-season forecast released a week later. ### How does that compare with a normal Atlantic season? (cpc.ncep.noaa.gov) NOAA said an average Atlantic season produces 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes. By that measure, the center of the 2026 forecast points to fewer named storms and fewer hurricanes than the long-term norm. The agency’s range-based forecast carries 70% confidence for each category, meaning officials are presenting a spread rather than a single storm count. (cpc.ncep.noaa.gov) NOAA’s public outlook page lists the forecast as an official product of the Climate Prediction Center, National Hurricane Center and Hurricane Research Division. (noaa.gov) ### Does a below-normal season mean coastal residents can relax? June 1 did not bring any active Atlantic tropical cyclones, according to the National Hurricane Center’s tropical weather outlook. The center said tropical cyclone formation was not expected in the Atlantic during the next seven days. NOAA and the National Weather Service nonetheless said forecasting tools and warning systems were in place for the season ahead. (cpc.ncep.noaa.gov) Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said in NOAA’s release that the agency was prepared to provide real-time forecasts and warnings. A quieter seasonal total does not rule out landfalling storms, because a single hurricane can cause major damage regardless of basin-wide activity. (nhc.noaa.gov) ### Which U.S. areas are drawing the most attention? AccuWeather identified the Gulf Coast and the Carolinas as areas with elevated landfall exposure this season, according to reporting published on June 1. That regional outlook sits alongside NOAA’s basin-wide forecast rather than replacing it, because NOAA’s seasonal release does not assign state-by-state strike probabilities. (noaa.gov) The Atlantic basin in NOAA’s outlook includes the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America. Residents in those regions typically use the National Hurricane Center for day-to-day storm formation updates once the season is underway. ### Where should readers watch for the next official updates? (palmbeachpost.com) The National Hurricane Center said regular Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlooks resumed on June 1. Those products provide two-day and seven-day formation odds and are updated throughout the season from Miami. NOAA’s seasonal outlook was issued on May 21, and the agency’s forecast page remains the official reference for the 2026 storm-count ranges. (cpc.ncep.noaa.gov) The next meaningful changes in risk will come through updated tropical outlooks, watches and warnings if disturbances begin to organize before the Nov. 30 end of the season. (nhc.noaa.gov)