Indonesia still growing, investment holds

Indonesia is still posting about 5 percent growth, and the government says first-quarter investment is on track to keep rising. (antaranews.com) Coordinating Economic Affairs Minister Airlangga Hartarto said on April 8 that first-quarter 2026 growth remained “strong and stable” despite global uncertainty, and another Antara report on April 10 put the government’s own near-term estimate at at least 5.5 percent. (setkab.go.id) (antaranews.com) A separate market estimate from BRI Danareksa Sekuritas, published April 14, projected first-quarter growth at 5.36 percent year on year, with household spending described as the main support. (kompas.com) On investment, Minister Rosan Roeslani said Indonesia expects about Rp497 trillion, or about $28.9 billion, of realized investment in January through March 2026, up roughly 7 percent from a year earlier. He said that level would create about 627,000 jobs. (antaranews.com) Rosan said the biggest first-quarter investment flows were going into base metals, transport and warehousing, telecommunications, mining, and industrial estates. He also said foreign investors from key partner countries were still committed despite turmoil tied to Middle East tensions. (antaranews.com 1) (antaranews.com 2) Those numbers matter for Indonesia because investment has become one of the government’s main tools for lifting growth above the 5 percent range while it pushes “downstreaming,” or processing more raw materials at home instead of exporting them unrefined. In 2025, total realized investment reached Rp1,931.2 trillion, above the presidential target of Rp1,905.6 trillion. (bkpm.go.id) The same 2025 investment report said downstreaming-related investment reached Rp584.1 trillion, up 43.3 percent from a year earlier, and accounted for 30.2 percent of the total. That helps explain why metals and industrial estates are now at the top of the sector list. (bkpm.go.id) Indonesia is entering this stretch with inflation still elevated but inside Bank Indonesia’s 1.5 percent to 3.5 percent target band. The statistics agency said annual inflation was 3.48 percent in March 2026, driven in part by food prices and Ramadan-Eid demand. (bps.go.id) Bank Indonesia has projected full-year 2026 growth around 5.33 percent, slightly below the government’s 5.4 percent target, so the first-quarter data will show whether domestic demand and investment are strong enough to keep that pace. (tempo.co) For now, the government’s case is simple: consumers are still spending, investors are still committing money, and officials want the first quarter to show Indonesia can hold that line even as external risks keep rising. (kompas.com) (antaranews.com)