AAA forecasts 45 million Memorial Day travelers

AAA said on May 11 that 45 million Americans are expected to travel at least 50 miles from home over the Memorial Day holiday period from Thursday, May 21, through Monday, May 25. The forecast is slightly above last year’s level and would set a new record for the holiday, according to the group’s national travel outlook. The biggest share of those trips will be by car, with 39.1 million people expected to drive. Air travel and other modes such as buses, trains and cruises account for the rest of the projected volume. ### Why is the headline number so high this year? AAA said the 45 million total is just above the 44.8 million travelers it estimated for Memorial Day 2025. That makes 2026 another year at or near record holiday travel levels after the rebound that has carried through recent summer and year-end periods. AAA defines the Memorial Day travel period as five days, from Thursday, May 21, to Monday, May 25, and counts people traveling 50 miles or more from home. That matters because the forecast is measuring a broad holiday window, not only traffic on Memorial Day itself. ### How many people are expected to drive? AAA said 39.1 million travelers will go by car, making road trips the dominant mode by a wide margin. That means nearly nine in 10 holiday travelers in the forecast are expected to be on the roads. The national outlook also breaks out 3.61 million air travelers and 2.35 million people using other transportation, including buses, trains and cruises. Those categories are smaller than driving, but together they still represent nearly 6 million trips over the five-day span. ### Are gas prices expected to change travel plans? AAA said higher costs are a factor this year, even as travel demand remains elevated. In several regional forecasts, the group said rising prices were slowing year-over-year growth rather than stopping trips altogether. AAA’s North Carolina club used that framing in its May 19 forecast, saying record travel was expected but “higher costs slow year-over-year growth.” The national forecast did not say travelers were canceling plans in large numbers; instead, it showed demand holding up despite fuel-price pressure. ### What does the state-by-state picture look like? AAA’s Carolinas club said on May 19 that more than 1.3 million North Carolinians are expected to travel at least 50 miles over Memorial Day weekend, which it described as a record for the holiday. Most of those travelers are expected to drive, continuing the national pattern. Regional AAA clubs have issued similar state forecasts in the run-up to the holiday. In Michigan, for example, AAA said more than 1.3 million residents were expected to travel, with nearly 1.2 million driving. ### When will the roads and airports feel the busiest? AAA’s national release covers travel taking place between Thursday and Monday, which spreads the surge across five days rather than one departure rush. That usually means congestion builds before the weekend and remains elevated through the return trip on Memorial Day itself. Airports are also expected to stay busy because more than 3.6 million people are forecast to fly. Travelers are watching weather as well, with other outlets reporting rain and thunderstorms in parts of the country during the holiday period. ### Where can readers check the next updates? AAA’s national newsroom posted the forecast on May 11, and regional AAA clubs are continuing to publish state-level estimates and travel advisories ahead of the weekend. The next concrete updates are likely to come from traffic, airport and weather reports between May 21 and May 25, when the forecast period is underway.