Gareth Soloway names SMH, NVDA crash targets

Gareth Soloway posted a YouTube video on May 18 warning that the semiconductor trade was nearing a top, naming the VanEck Semiconductor ETF, Nvidia, Micron and Intel as examples. The video, titled “Semiconductor TOP Signal — SMH, NVDA, Micron, Intel Crash Targets 2026,” was published less than two days before Nvidia’s scheduled May 20 earnings release. Soloway is chief market strategist at Verified Investing, according to his firm’s website. The video’s description said semiconductor charts were repeating a prior 240% bull-run pattern that had been followed by a 40% to 47% drawdown. ### What exactly did Soloway put on the record? The May 18 video description said “Semiconductors just flashed a major topping signal” and described a “240% bull-run pattern repeating across three cycles.” It also said the setup had historically been followed by a “40-47% drawdown,” framing the call as a technical-analysis warning rather than a company-specific fundamental forecast. (youtube.com) Verified Investing’s own recent recaps show Soloway has been making similar arguments for weeks. A May 19 recap on the firm’s site said he was flagging “Semiconductor 40% Risk,” while earlier May and November 2025 posts referred to “AI semiconductor bubble,” “semiconductor mania,” and a “102% topping signal.” Those posts describe his method as chart-based and centered on overextension from long-term averages and trend lines. (youtube.com) ### Why did SMH feature so prominently in the call? SMH is the VanEck Semiconductor ETF, which tracks the MVIS US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index, according to VanEck. Because the fund holds a concentrated basket of major chip companies, it gives traders a single chart for the sector rather than a call on one stock. As of May 19, Nvidia was SMH’s largest holding at about 17.6%, while Intel and Micron were also among the fund’s larger positions, according to holdings data compiled by Stock Analysis. (verifiedinvesting.com) That concentration helps explain why a bearish call on SMH can also be presented as a warning on Nvidia, Micron and Intel. ### Where did Nvidia stand as the warning landed? (vaneck.com) Nvidia was trading at about $218.17 on the morning of May 19, down roughly 1.9% on the session, according to Yahoo Finance market data surfaced in search results. The stock was due to report first-quarter fiscal 2027 results after the bell on Wednesday, May 20. Nvidia’s investor-relations page says the earnings webcast is scheduled for May 20 at 2 p.m. (stockanalysis.com) Pacific, or 5 p.m. Eastern. A separate report by The Tennessean also said the company would report after the bell on May 20 for the quarter ended April 26. (finance.yahoo.com) ### Was this a fundamental call on chip demand? Soloway’s published materials frame the warning as a technical call tied to price patterns, trend lines and historical analogs, not to a new disclosure from Nvidia, Micron or Intel. The YouTube description and Verified Investing recaps emphasize “topping signal,” “drawdown,” and “risk” language rather than changes to revenue guidance, orders or product demand. (investor.nvidia.com) Reuters Open Interest said on X on May 19 that Nvidia was in focus ahead of earnings as investors weighed whether the AI leader could sustain momentum as bond yields rose. That broader market backdrop helps place Soloway’s warning in a moment when semiconductor shares were already under pressure. (youtube.com) ### What should readers watch next? May 20 is the next concrete date in the story because Nvidia is scheduled to release first-quarter fiscal 2027 results and hold its webcast that afternoon. SMH holdings pages and Nvidia’s investor-relations site will show whether the sector’s largest weight and the ETF’s broader chip basket react in line with Soloway’s bearish setup or move the other way after earnings. (tennessean.com) (investor.nvidia.com)