Bitcoin struggles near $68,000
Bitcoin remains under pressure near $68,000 as of February 17, with derivatives metrics and ETF flows indicating weak new demand. The cryptocurrency is no longer tracking gold as closely as in past macroeconomic shocks, with analysts citing regulatory headwinds and profit-taking by large holders. Recovery is expected to be gradual rather than immediate.
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a significant net outflow of $410 million on February 12, led by outflows from major funds like BlackRock's IBIT and Fidelity's FBTC. However, some analysts note that while certain funds see outflows, others are seeing inflows, suggesting investors may be reallocating capital within the crypto space rather than leaving it entirely. - The correlation between Bitcoin and gold has turned negative, with the 1-year rolling correlation measured at -0.29 as of February 12, 2026. In early 2026, Bitcoin has shown a stronger positive correlation with the Nasdaq 100 index, often in the +0.35 to +0.6 range, trading more like a tech asset than a safe-haven one. - While the summary mentioned profit-taking, on-chain data shows that large holders, or "whales," have net accumulated 170,000 BTC so far in 2026. One prominent corporate holder, MicroStrategy, added 1,142 BTC for approximately $90 million in the first two weeks of February alone. - In a sign of market fear, the number of large-scale "whale" transactions has collapsed by 72% over a recent two-week period, falling from 5,767 to just 1,637. This indicates that while some large entities are accumulating, the overall activity from major players has significantly slowed, signaling hesitation. - In the derivatives market, funding rates have fallen to their most negative levels since August 2024. This suggests traders are predominantly betting on further price declines and are paying a premium to maintain their short positions. - From a technical perspective, analysts are watching a key support level around $66,270. A sustained break below this price could trigger a further decline toward a downside target of approximately $58,880. - Upcoming U.S. crypto legislation is a key factor, with the "Genius Act" set to establish a regulatory framework for stablecoins. As part of this, the U.S. Treasury has announced it will stop selling seized Bitcoin and instead hold roughly $15 billion worth as a national strategic reserve.
