NOAA projects below-average 2026 Atlantic season: 8–14 named storms, 3–6 hurricanes

NOAA said on May 21 that the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be below normal, with 8 to 14 named storms, 3 to 6 hurricanes and 1 to 3 major hurricanes. The agency gave the outlook a 70% confidence range and said there is a 55% chance of a below-normal season, compared with a 35% chance of a near-normal season and a 10% chance of an above-normal season. The Atlantic season runs from June 1 through November 30, according to NOAA. An average Atlantic season produces 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes, the agency said. ### Why is NOAA expecting fewer Atlantic storms this year? NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center said El Niño is likely to emerge soon, with an 82% chance during May-July 2026 and a 96% chance it continues through Northern Hemisphere winter 2026-27. The agency’s hurricane outlook said El Niño can increase upper-level wind shear over the tropical Atlantic, a pattern that tends to suppress storm formation and intensification. (noaa.gov) The May 21 outlook also said sea surface temperatures across parts of the tropical Atlantic are expected to be less favorable than in recent hyperactive years. NOAA said the combination of El Niño-linked wind patterns and less supportive Atlantic conditions tilted the forecast toward a quieter season. (cpc.ncep.noaa.gov) ### Does “below normal” mean coastal residents can relax? NOAA said seasonal outlooks describe basin-wide activity, not where storms will track or whether any will hit land. The agency’s release did not reduce the need for preparation and said one storm can still be devastating regardless of how many systems form across the Atlantic basin. (noaa.gov) The National Hurricane Center’s current tropical outlook showed no expected tropical cyclone formation in the Atlantic during the next seven days as of May 24. That short-term quiet does not change the June 1 start of routine Atlantic outlooks for the season. ### What are the specific numbers NOAA is using? The 2026 outlook calls for 8 to 14 named storms, which NOAA defines as systems with winds of at least 39 mph. (noaa.gov) Of those, 3 to 6 are forecast to become hurricanes with winds of at least 74 mph, including 1 to 3 major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher with winds of at least 111 mph. (weather.gov) NOAA’s probability breakdown is also more tilted toward a quiet year than toward an active one. The agency said the odds are 55% for below normal, 35% for near normal and 10% for above normal activity. ### What is changing in NOAA’s forecasting tools this season? NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory said on May 19 that data from a small uncrewed aircraft system will be integrated into a NOAA hurricane forecast model for the first time during the 2026 season. (noaa.gov) The aircraft is Black Swift Technologies’ S0, according to the laboratory. NOAA researchers said the drone data improved forecasts of rapid intensity changes in testing and will be used to help refine hurricane intensity predictions. A separate NOAA research update published on May 21 said the agency is also preparing to deploy uncrewed systems, test artificial-intelligence forecast models and fly Hurricane Hunter missions during the season. (aoml.noaa.gov) ### Where should people watch for the next official updates? The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season begins on June 1, and NOAA said the National Hurricane Center will issue routine Tropical Weather Outlooks through November 30. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center has posted the full seasonal outlook, while the National Hurricane Center will publish storm-specific advisories if systems develop. (aoml.noaa.gov) (noaa.gov)