Multifamily prices up despite rising vacancy

Crexi’s platform-level snapshot for January 2026 recorded multifamily vacancy at 12.6% and sale cap rates averaging 6.60% on its listing-based CREXi Trends report, illustrating how listing prices can reflect marketplace supply and seller expectations rather than stabilized in-place performance. crexi.com Chicago metro fundamentals from CoStar and local market trackers show very different operating signals: stabilized vacancy finished Q4 2025 around 4.7–5.0% while metro asking rents were up roughly 3.5–3.7% year‑over‑year, evidence that local cash flows and occupancy remain tighter than some national listing aggregates imply. creconsult.net Industry analysts point to a persistent public‑vs‑private valuation gap and structural reasons for the disconnect — REIT implied cap‑rate measures can diverge from private appraisal/transaction cap rates, and institutional buyers often underwrite to replacement cost, liquidity and portfolio fit (Nareit tracked the cap‑rate spread; J.P. Morgan noted Chicago apartment cap rates near 6%). reit.com For Chicago‑focused investors and analysts, firms emphasize underwriting that stress‑tests rents and cap‑rate scenarios, regular cross‑checks against CoStar/Yardi comps, and timing tools like 1031 exchange planning as deliveries ease (Marcus & Millichap projects deliveries below 4,000 units in 2026), while hiring guides and analyst job descriptions list financial modeling, underwriting, and market‑level research as core skills. marcusmillichap.com