Semiconductor re-rating

Chip analysts are raising their numbers again after the industry closed 2025 at nearly $800 billion and entered 2026 with AI demand still outrunning supply. (wsts.org) (semiconductors.org) The World Semiconductor Trade Statistics group said global chip sales reached $791.7 billion in 2025, up 25.6% from $630.5 billion in 2024. Its autumn 2025 forecast had already lifted the 2025 outlook to $796 billion after a stronger-than-expected third quarter. (semiconductors.org) (wsts.org) Omdia said on April 23 that it raised its 2026 semiconductor revenue forecast to 62.7% growth as hyperscalers increased capital spending and the shift to high-bandwidth memory tightened supply in conventional memory. (omdia.tech.informa.com) The new forecasts are being driven by two parts of the market: logic chips, which do the computing, and memory chips, which hold data close to the processor. World Semiconductor Trade Statistics said logic sales rose 39.9% to $301.9 billion in 2025, while memory reached $223.1 billion after a 34.8% increase. (semiconductors.org) (wsts.org) That mix reflects where AI spending is landing. Nvidia reported fiscal 2026 revenue of $215.9 billion, up 65% year over year, with data center revenue of $62.3 billion in its latest quarter. (investor.nvidia.com) The supply chain is also signaling that demand has not cooled. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. reported first-quarter 2026 revenue of NT$1.134 trillion and Reuters reported on April 16 that the company raised its full-year revenue growth outlook to above 30% and increased capital spending to meet AI demand. (investor.tsmc.com) (money.usnews.com) Memory suppliers are showing the same pattern. Micron said on March 18 that fiscal second-quarter 2026 revenue jumped to $23.86 billion from $8.05 billion a year earlier, and chief executive Sanjay Mehrotra said the results reflected “a strong demand environment” and “tight industry supply.” (investors.micron.com) SK hynix said on April 23 that first-quarter demand stayed strong despite a seasonal slowdown because of expanded investment in AI infrastructure, and the company said customer demand is exceeding supply capacity. Reuters reported the same day that SK hynix expects AI chip demand to stay above manufacturing capacity. (news.skhynix.com) (channelnewsasia.com) Not every chip market is moving together. World Semiconductor Trade Statistics said discretes are still declining, mainly because of weak automotive demand, while Europe was forecast to grow 6% in 2025 and Japan to shrink 4%. (wsts.org) The reset in forecasts comes down to a simple change in assumptions: AI servers are buying more leading-edge processors and more premium memory than analysts expected six months ago, and the factories that package those chips are still tight. As long as that bottleneck holds, chipmakers with exposure to logic, high-bandwidth memory, and advanced packaging have more room to beat old revenue models than the broader sector. (omdia.tech.informa.com) (wsts.org)