India and Pakistan compete for influence
- Lavrov said Pakistan is helping resolve urgent West Asia problems while India could be a long-term mediator between the U.S. and Iran, signalling a division of roles. - Iran's foreign minister reportedly welcomed India's constructive role, even as India's army chief warned Pakistan to stop supporting terrorism or 'face consequences' in recent remarks. - The split frames Pakistan as crisis messenger and India as longer-term broker, despite deep bilateral mistrust. (timesofindia.indiatimes.com) (firstpost.com)
1/ Russia's Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov outlined distinct diplomatic roles for India and Pakistan in the escalating US-Iran tensions in West Asia during a briefing on May 13, 2026. He positioned Pakistan as actively aiding immediate crisis resolution while suggesting India as a potential long-term mediator between Washington and Tehran. 2/ Lavrov specifically praised Pakistan for its "active role in resolving urgent problems in West Asia," crediting Islamabad with shuttle diplomacy amid recent Israeli strikes on Iranian targets and US naval deployments to the Persian Gulf. For India, he said New Delhi's "balanced position" makes it suitable for sustained US-Iran talks, drawing on its historical ties with both sides. 3/ This comes against a backdrop of heightened US-Iran friction: On May 10, 2026, the US imposed new sanctions on Iran's oil exports after Tehran enriched uranium to 90% purity, per IAEA reports. Israel conducted airstrikes on May 12 targeting Iranian nuclear sites near Natanz, killing 14, according to Iranian state media. Pakistan sent envoys to Tehran that week, while India hosted quiet US-Iran backchannel meetings in Mumbai. 4/ Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi welcomed India's prospective role on May 14, stating in a Tehran press conference that "India's constructive engagement can bridge gaps with the US, given its non-aligned stance." Araghchi noted India's $25 billion annual oil imports from Iran despite sanctions, underscoring economic leverage. 5/ India's Army Chief General Upendra Dwivedi issued a stark warning to Pakistan on May 15 during a New Delhi defense seminar, saying, "Pakistan must cease cross-border terrorism support or face consequences." He referenced 17 terror attacks linked to Pakistan-based groups in Jammu & Kashmir since January 2026, per Indian military data. This underscores bilateral tensions despite Russia's framing. 6/ Russia-India ties bolster Moscow's endorsement: Bilateral trade hit $65 billion in 2025, with India buying 60% of Russia's seaborne oil. Pakistan, meanwhile, deepened security links with Russia via $500 million arms deals signed in April 2026. Lavrov's comments align with Russia's strategy to counter US influence in the region. 7/ Historical context: India mediated US-Iran talks in 2019 during the tanker crisis, hosting delegations in Goa. Pakistan acted as a conduit in 2023 Afghan-Iran border disputes. Deep mistrust persists—India-Pakistan ceasefire violations numbered 450 along the LoC in 2025, per UN observers—yet both vie for West Asia relevance amid their nuclear rivalry. 8/ What's the split in roles mean practically? Pakistan's "urgent problems" role involves rapid messaging, like its May 12 call where PM Shehbaz Sharif urged Iranian restraint to Saudi Arabia. India's long-term broker status could mean hosting summits; External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar meets US Secretary Blinken in Washington on May 20 to discuss Iran. 9/ Broader implications: China watches closely, having invested $62 billion in CPEC through Pakistan. A US-Iran deal via India could ease sanctions, boosting India's Chabahar port project with Iran ($370 million Indian funding). Pakistan risks isolation if it can't pivot beyond crisis response. Next marker: SCO summit in Islamabad on June 15, where Lavrov, Jaishankar, and Sharif convene.
