Hormuz choke risks spike
Iran’s tightening hold over the Strait of Hormuz has left millions of barrels of oil and gas tied up—and Tehran is even planning to impose tolls on transiting vessels, a move that could hike shipping costs and energy prices ( ). Houthi threats that their “fingers are on the trigger” plus fresh warnings about attacks on the Bab‑el‑Mandeb mean two of the world’s three critical chokepoints could be under simultaneous pressure—raising the odds of prolonged supply disruptions and volatility for global markets ( ).
Iran has been extracting ad‑hoc payments of as much as $2 million for single commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz, according to people briefed on the arrangements. (bloomberg.com) (bloomberg.com) State media and Iranian outlets report parliamentarians are drafting a bill to formalize transit fees and make vetting and detours into Iranian‑controlled waters a legal requirement for passage. (news18.com) (news18.com) The International Energy Agency says crude and product flows through Hormuz fell from roughly 20 million barrels per day before the war to “a trickle,” and Gulf producers have cut output by at least 10 million barrels per day as storage fills. (iea.org) (iea.blob.core.windows.net) Vessel tracking firms show major queueing: MarineTraffic/Kpler data put at least 150 tankers at anchor outside the strait, while other trackers reported clusters exceeding 700 vessels on both approaches. (maritimetelegraph.com) (maritimetelegraph.com) Despite the bottleneck, Iran has continued to move substantial crude to China and has selectively allowed “friendly” commercial sailings through negotiated transits, according to shipping and trade data. (cnbc.com) (cnbc.com) Yahya Saree, a Houthi military spokesman, warned the group’s “fingers are on the trigger” and said the Houthis would act to prevent the Red Sea being used for “hostile operations,” while the U.S. Maritime Administration has circulated advisories warning of Houthi threats to Bab‑el‑Mandeb transits. (aljazeera.com) (aljazeera.com) Marine insurers report war‑risk cover in the Gulf has thinned and premiums have surged; industry reporting shows insuring a $100 million tanker for Hormuz transit can cost on the order of 5% of vessel value (≈$5 million), pushing shipowners to reroute or pay hefty surcharges. (spglobal.com) (spglobal.com) The IEA and member countries have responded with coordinated releases from emergency stocks totaling 400 million barrels to blunt immediate price shocks, a measure intended to offset the supply shortfall while routes remain constrained. (iea.org) (iea.org)
