Jet‑fuel squeeze threatens summer

European airlines and airports are warning that a jet-fuel squeeze could force flight cuts within weeks if supplies from the Middle East do not recover before the summer peak. (reuters.com) Airports Council International Europe told European Union officials in a 9 April letter that a “systemic jet fuel shortage” could become reality within three weeks if traffic through the Strait of Hormuz does not resume in a stable way. The group said many major hubs hold about 8 to 10 days of jet-fuel stocks. (euronews.com) Airlines for Europe, the region’s main airline lobby, asked Brussels on 14 April for emergency measures to address fuel shortages and airspace closures tied to the Iran war. Reuters reported the requests included crisis-response steps at the European Union level as carriers prepare contingency plans. (reuters.com) Jet fuel is the kerosene-like fuel that powers aircraft, and Europe imports more of it from the Middle East than any other transport fuel. Reuters reported that about 75 percent of Europe’s jet-fuel imports come from the Middle East, leaving airlines exposed when Gulf shipping is disrupted. (reuters.com; reuters.com) The supply problem is colliding with a longer decline in Europe’s own fuel system. Reuters reported that North Sea oil output has fallen for years and more than 30 European refineries, equal to 16 percent of the region’s refining capacity, have closed over the past 25 years. (reuters.com) Prices have moved fast. Euronews reported on 10 April that jet-fuel prices had risen about 95 percent since the United States and Israel launched military attacks against Iran on 28 February, and Reuters later reported Europe was pulling in record jet-fuel cargoes from the United States to plug the gap. (euronews.com; reuters.com) The European Commission said on 15 April that there was no jet-fuel shortage in the European Union “at the moment,” while adding that the risk of future supply problems remained a top concern. On 16 April, Reuters reported the Commission was drafting plans to maximize refinery output and manage a potential crunch. (reuters.com; reuters.com) Not every cancellation now is caused by fuel. Lufthansa strikes have separately hit Frankfurt and Munich this week, and reports on 15 and 16 April said labor action was grounding hundreds of flights at Germany’s two biggest hubs. (independent.co.uk; adept.travel) That split matters for travelers because Europe’s summer schedules are built around tight aircraft rotations, full airports and heavy connecting traffic through hubs such as Frankfurt, Munich, Paris Charles de Gaulle and Amsterdam Schiphol. A fuel shortage would not need to shut an airport completely to disrupt thousands of onward trips. (eurocontrol.int) The next test is simple: whether tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz recover before late April stockpiles run lower. If they do not, the warnings from airports, airlines and Brussels are likely to turn from contingency planning into grounded flights. (nytimes.com; reuters.com)