USDA projects food-at-home prices will rise about 2.4% in 2026

The U.S. Department of Agriculture said in its April 2026 Food Price Outlook that grocery prices are expected to keep rising this year, with food-at-home prices projected to increase 2.4%. The forecast sits below the expected 3.6% increase for food-away-from-home prices, a category that covers restaurants and other meals bought outside the home. USDA’s Economic Research Service said the 2.4% estimate comes with a wide prediction interval, from 0.0% to 4.8%, reflecting uncertainty around the path of inflation. Economists cited by Newsweek said the war involving Iran could add to that pressure through higher oil and fertilizer costs. ### Which grocery categories does USDA expect to rise the most? USDA’s Economic Research Service said several food-at-home categories are expected to post faster-than-average price growth in 2026. Those categories include beef and veal, fish and seafood, fresh vegetables, processed fruits and vegetables, sugar and sweets, nonalcoholic beverages, and “other foods,” according to the agency’s summary findings. (ers.usda.gov) The April 2026 outlook did not put every aisle on the same path. USDA said five other major food-at-home categories are expected to grow more slowly than their 20-year historical average rate. That split helps explain why shoppers may see the biggest strain in a narrower set of recurring purchases rather than across every item in the cart at once. ### Why are economists linking oil and fertilizer to supermarket prices? (ers.usda.gov) Justin Wolfers, an economist quoted by Newsweek, said, “The next story is food,” after oil prices rose more than 50% since the conflict began on February 28. Newsweek reported that the rise in energy costs could feed into grocery bills because fuel affects transportation and fertilizer costs affect farm production. (ers.usda.gov) USDA’s own background material says retail food prices only partly reflect farm-level commodity prices and that processing and retailing costs play an even larger role in supermarket prices. That means higher energy costs can move through several parts of the supply chain before they show up at the checkout line. (newsweek.com) ### Does a 2.4% forecast mean every bill rises by exactly that amount? The USDA forecast is an annual average, not a promise that each product or each month will move by the same amount. USDA said the Food Price Outlook tracks annual percentage changes by averaging observed and forecast prices for all months in the year against the prior year. The agency also publishes category-level forecasts and monthly updates, so the estimate can change as new inflation data arrives. (ers.usda.gov) USDA’s documentation says the outlook is based on Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index data and uses a forecasting methodology revised in recent years. ### Why does this matter beyond the USDA headline number? KRTV, citing USDA’s Food Price Outlook, said the categories most likely to outpace average growth include beef, seafood, fresh vegetables and beverages. (ers.usda.gov) Those are staples that appear frequently in weekly household spending, which is why even a modest overall increase can feel larger in practice if it is concentrated in high-turnover items. That last point is an inference from the USDA category mix and typical shopping patterns, not a separate USDA statement. (ers.usda.gov) USDA’s latest summary findings and tables are posted on the Economic Research Service Food Price Outlook page, which the agency updates monthly. The next revisions will show whether spring and summer energy and input costs are pushing the 2026 grocery forecast higher or lower. (ers.usda.gov) (krtv.com)