Americans see China as economic rival

China is the rival Americans worry about most on the economic side, not the military one. That is the useful takeaway from the new Chicago Council/NPR/Ipsos polling timed to Donald Trump’s Tuesday trip to Beijing for talks with Xi Jinping. The gap matters because it tells you what kind of toughness voters will tolerate. They are open to pressure on trade, but they do not seem eager for a broader showdown. ### What changed today? The immediate news is the combination of two things: Trump’s Beijing visit and fresh polling on how Americans see China right now. The survey was fielded in March and again in early May 2026, then released May 12 as Trump headed into a summit with Xi. That makes it less a generic mood check and more a snapshot of the political terrain right before a high-stakes meeting. (globalaffairs.org) ### How do Americans see China? Mostly as a competitor with sharp elbows. By a five-to-two margin, Americans describe China as a rival or adversary rather than an ally or necessary partner. The split inside that matters too: 37% call China a rival, 21% an adversary, 18% a necessary partner, and just 2% an ally. So the public is not warm toward Beijing, but it is also not treating China as an enemy in the pure military sense. (globalaffairs.org) ### Economic threat, not military threat? Yes — and that is the core finding. Americans pick China’s growing economic power as the bigger threat by 56% to 29% over military power. Another 13% say China is not a threat at all. Almost 8 in 10 also think China wants to be the dominant world leader. Put together, the picture is pretty clear: people think Beijing is trying to win, but they think the main arena is money, industry, prices, and influence. (globalaffairs.org) ### What about tariffs? This is where the politics get tricky. Americans broadly think tariffs on Chinese imports have been bad for both countries — 72% say bad for China’s economy and 66% say bad for the U.S. economy. They also say tariffs hurt the U.S. cost of living, standard of living, and job creation. Basically, voters may like the idea of being tough on China, but they do not like paying for that toughness at the checkout line. (globalaffairs.org) ### Do they still want trade? Mostly, yes. A 62% majority opposes significantly reducing trade with China, especially if that means higher prices for Americans. Majorities also say they would support a deal that lowers tariffs in exchange for bigger Chinese purchases of U.S. agricultural goods. That is a pretty specific signal: keep leverage, but use it to get a deal, not to blow up commerce entirely. (globalaffairs.org) ### Is this a change from last year? Yes — and the shift is important. In October 2025, Chicago Council found a broader move toward cooperation and engagement with China, with 53% favoring that approach and majorities opposing higher tariffs. The new May 2026 polling does not erase that softer turn. It refines it. Americans still see China as a rival, but the preferred response looks more like managed competition than full economic separation. (globalaffairs.org) ### Where are the party splits? Republicans are the most divided. MAGA Republicans are much more likely to say tariffs work and to back Trump’s approach. Non-MAGA Republicans are more skeptical, especially on inflation and household costs. Democrats and independents are more consistently against higher tariffs and more open to continued trade. So there is a bipartisan China concern, but not a bipartisan tariff consensus. (globalaffairs.org) ### What does that mean for policy? It means the White House has room for hard bargaining, but not for reckless escalation. Voters seem comfortable with a strategy that treats China as a serious economic rival and tries to extract concessions. The catch is that the public also wants cheaper goods and steady trade. That narrows the lane: pressure Beijing, yes — but do it in a way that does not make American consumers absorb the blast. (globalaffairs.org) ### Bottom line Americans are not telling Washington to relax about China. They are telling Washington to pick the fight they think is real — economics — and avoid turning that rivalry into something bigger than they actually want. (globalaffairs.org)