Colorado forecasts monsoon, flash-flood watches

The Colorado Sun reported on July 8 that monsoon rains were nearing Colorado after weeks of dangerous fire weather, with forecasters saying the moisture could bring some relief before hotter and drier conditions return this weekend. The National Weather Service office in Pueblo said early Thursday that strong to severe thunderstorms were possible on July 9 and July 10 east of the mountains, while flash flooding remained a concern over burn scars, especially around the Aspen Acres fire. The setup leaves Colorado with two weather stories at once. Rain and higher humidity can help firefighters and reduce short-term fire behavior, but the same storms can trigger debris flows and flash flooding when heavy rain falls on steep terrain or recently burned ground. The National Weather Service’s Pueblo forecast showed a Flash Flood Watch for parts of southern Colorado from noon to 8 p.m. MDT on Thursday. (coloradosun.com) ### Why are forecasters talking about monsoon rain now? The Colorado Sun said monsoon moisture was expected to arrive this week as Colorado moved into a more typical midsummer pattern of afternoon and evening thunderstorms. The paper reported that experts were watching whether the moisture would arrive soon enough to meaningfully ease fire danger after a destructive early summer fire season. (forecast.weather.gov) The National Weather Service in Denver/Boulder said on July 8 that scattered to numerous afternoon showers and thunderstorms were expected on Wednesday, Thursday and possibly Friday, with cooler conditions and improved relative humidity for parts of northeast and north-central Colorado. Those are the conditions fire managers typically look for when assessing short-term moderation in fire weather. (coloradosun.com) ### Where is the flood risk most immediate? The Pueblo forecast office said in its July 9 area forecast discussion that flash flooding would continue to be a concern over burn scar areas, “particularly around the Aspen Acres fire.” A separate watch product said excessive rainfall could cause flash flooding and debris flows over the Aspen Acres burn scar again on Thursday. (forecast.weather.gov) The National Weather Service forecast page for Pueblo, Colorado, listed a Flash Flood Watch in effect from noon to 8 p.m. MDT on Thursday. The hazard language said severe thunderstorms and excessive rainfall were possible, with localized flash flooding among the risks. ### What did local forecasters say about Thursday’s storms? (forecast.weather.gov) KKTV reported on July 9 that southern Colorado faced more storm chances ahead, with flooding risk in drainages and on highways and strong to severe storms possible on the plains. The station said flash flood watches had been issued for Thursday in southern Colorado. The National Weather Service in Pueblo used similar language in its overnight outlook, saying strong to severe thunderstorms were possible Thursday and Friday east of the mountains. (forecast.weather.gov) The office also said hot and dry conditions were expected to return to the region over the weekend, with moisture slowly returning to the mountains next week. (kktv.com) ### Is this only a Colorado story? AccuWeather reported this week that storms with flooding downpours, damaging winds and hail were expected to affect a broad stretch of the central and eastern United States. Another AccuWeather weather-news listing on July 9 described “storms with flooding, high winds” in the central and southeastern United States. (forecast.weather.gov) The federal forecast for Pueblo also pointed beyond Colorado, saying severe thunderstorms and heavy rain were expected from parts of the Plains to the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday. That broader pattern helps explain why Colorado’s storms are part of a wider midsummer stretch of active weather rather than an isolated event. ### What changes over the next few days? (accuweather.com) The National Weather Service in Pueblo said the near-term window for storms and flooding concerns was Thursday and Friday, with the greatest concern east of the mountains and over burn scars. The same forecast said hot and dry weather would return over the weekend. (forecast.weather.gov) Thursday’s main watch period in southern Colorado was scheduled to end at 8 p.m. MDT, according to the National Weather Service. After that, forecasters said the next shift to watch was the weekend heat, followed by a slower return of mountain moisture next week. (forecast.weather.gov 1) (forecast.weather.gov 2)