Metals: copper high, lithium rebounds
Copper hit record highs even as Goldman Sachs warns of a potential mid‑2026 correction, while lithium markets are rebounding—SQM reported record sales—keeping pressure on EV, construction and renewable supply chains. The twin moves complicate project economics for energy transition and industrial buyers. (markets.financialcontent.com) (markets.financialcontent.com)
Goldman Sachs’ research note cites a London Metals Exchange intraday high of $13,387/tonne on January 6 and projects a reversion toward roughly $11,000/tonne later in 2026. (goldmansachs.com) The bank pins much of that near‑term volatility to U.S. trade policy, assigning roughly a 55% chance that a 15% refined‑copper tariff will be announced in the first half of 2026 and noting a mid‑2026 decision point that could stop current U.S. stockpiling. (investinglive.com) U.S. policy timing is explicit in official filings: the Commerce Department was ordered to deliver an updated report and recommendation on copper imports by June 30, 2026 under the Section 232 process. (federalregister.gov) Visible warehouse metrics show growing short‑term dislocations—LME warehouse reporting and third‑party trackers record swings in copper on‑warehouse stocks in March 2026 that analysts link to the speculative/stockpiling cycle. (en.macromicro.me) SQM’s Q4 2025 lithium division posted record quarterly sales of about 66,200 metric tonnes and the firm returned to a US$588.1 million net profit for full‑year 2025. (investing.com) Battery‑grade lithium carbonate spot assessments have rebounded to roughly US$24,086/tonne in recent Shanghai Metals Market estimates, supporting SQM’s decision to accelerate capacity moves. (carboncredits.com) SQM is planning multibillion‑dollar expansion spending (reported ~US$2.7 billion) alongside a company forecast that global lithium demand could grow about 25% in 2026, a combination that tightens near‑term market math for EV and storage buyers. (carboncredits.com) Benchmark Mineral Intelligence estimates roughly 70 kg of copper per EV on average; using an LME reference near US$12,046/tonne, a hypothetical US$2,000/tonne swing in copper implies roughly US$140 of raw‑material cost movement per vehicle (inference based on these sources). (source.benchmarkminerals.com)
