Dan Frio: Mortgage rates flirting 7%

Dan Frio said in a Thursday episode of “The Rate Update” that mortgage rates were “flirting with 7% again” and argued that oil was “a major reason why,” according to the episode description and related podcast listings. The comment came as widely followed U.S. mortgage measures moved higher in mid-May, though still below 7%. Freddie Mac said on May 21 that the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose to 6.51% from 6.36% a week earlier, while Mortgage News Daily’s daily survey put the same benchmark at 6.65% on May 21. Frio’s framing reflects a familiar market chain: oil can feed inflation expectations, inflation expectations can push Treasury yields higher, and mortgage rates often follow longer-dated bond yields. Frio’s recent programming has repeatedly linked oil, bonds and housing, including episodes surfaced under titles such as “Mortgage Rates to 7%? Oil, Inflation & Housing Data Just Changed the Story” and “7% MORTGAGE RATES AGAIN? (freddiemac.com) NO and Here’s WHY.” ### How close are mortgage rates to 7% right now? Freddie Mac’s weekly survey showed the 30-year fixed mortgage at 6.51% for the week ending May 21. Mortgage News Daily, which tracks daily lender pricing, showed 6.65% on May 21 after touching 6.75% on May 19. Those figures help explain why Frio described rates as “flirting with 7% again,” even though the main national benchmarks were still below that level. (youtube.com) Mortgage Research Center, another daily market tracker, said the average 30-year fixed rate was about 6.7% on May 21. Different surveys can show different levels because they use different lender samples, timing and assumptions about points and fees. ### Why would oil matter to mortgage rates? (freddiemac.com) U.S. crude and Brent prices were elevated in May as traders watched uncertainty around U.S.-Iran talks and supply risks. Reuters reported on May 22 that U.S. crude futures rose more than $1 in early trade, while Forbes Advisor said WTI opened at $99.15 a barrel and Brent at $105.34 on May 21. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s spot-price database also shows oil prices remained high into late May. (mortgageresearch.com) Higher oil prices can matter for mortgages because energy costs feed into broader inflation readings and investor expectations. Frio’s own podcast listings describe his show as covering “what’s moving mortgage rates, the bond market, inflation, and housing,” and an earlier episode summary said oil prices “jumped, inflation fears came right back into the market, and mortgage rates felt it fast.” That is Frio’s explanation, not a formal market forecast. (msn.com) ### Is Frio saying 7% is already here? A recent Frio episode title said “7% MORTGAGE RATES AGAIN? NO and Here’s WHY,” suggesting he was arguing against the idea that 7%-plus rates had already become the settled baseline. The newer episode title and description, by contrast, framed the market as moving back toward that threshold. Taken together, the two episodes indicate he was distinguishing between a test of 7% and a sustained move above it. (youtube.com) That distinction also matches the data available on May 21. Freddie Mac’s weekly average remained at 6.51%, while daily lender-based measures were higher but still short of 7%. ### Where did this comment appear? Frio’s comment was tied to “The Rate Update with Dan Frio,” a YouTube channel and podcast focused on mortgage rates, housing, inflation and Federal Reserve news. (ivoox.com) Search results and episode descriptions show the program runs on weekdays at 9 a.m. Central Time and is distributed on YouTube and podcast platforms including iHeart. (freddiemac.com) The next concrete reference point for readers is the next weekly Freddie Mac mortgage survey, while Frio’s next scheduled weekday update would appear at 9 a.m. Central Time on his regular channel feed. (freddiemac.com) (youtube.com)