Xi appears to hold upper hand as Trump arrives in Beijing

Trade talks are only half the story here. Donald Trump is going to Beijing on May 14–15 for his first presidential trip to China since 2017, but the meeting lands in the middle of a much bigger problem — the Iran war, shaky ceasefire diplomacy, and a global supply chain that still runs through China for key minerals. That changes the balance before the first handshake. It does not mean Xi Jinping gets everything he wants. But it does mean Beijing comes in with more cards than usual. ### Why does Iran change this meeting? Because Iran is not just a Middle East issue anymore. It now sits on top of oil shipping lanes, inflation risk, and U.S.-China diplomacy at the same time. Trump wants China to use its ties with Tehran to help stabilize the conflict. The catch is that China is also Iran’s biggest oil customer and one of its few major diplomatic backers, so Beijing can present itself as useful without fully aligning with Washington. (cfr.org) ### What does China actually have leverage over? Rare earths, first of all. These are the minerals that go into magnets, electronics, defense systems, and a lot of advanced manufacturing. U.S. officials said over the weekend that the current rare-earths arrangement with China is still in effect and will be extended “at the appropriate time.” That sounds reassuring, but basically it means the extension is political now — and the summit is where that politics gets tested. (bloomberg.com) ### Why does that matter so much to Washington? Because this is one of the few supply chains where China’s grip is still hard to replace fast. Tariffs are painful, but they are reversible. Losing access to processed rare earths and magnets is different — that can jam up factories and defense procurement in ways that are not easy to patch over in a quarter or two. So even if Trump wants to look tough, he also has to keep the material flow alive. (msn.com) ### Is this still mainly a trade summit? Not really. Trade is on the table, and there is talk of new boards or forums for trade and investment, but the agenda has sprawled. Iran, Taiwan, AI, nuclear issues, and export controls are now mixed together. That makes clean economic deals harder, because every concession in one lane starts to look connected to pressure in another. (cnbc.com) ### Why do analysts say Xi has the upper hand? Mostly because Beijing can say yes, no, or maybe on several things Trump wants at once. China can help with Iran diplomacy. China can keep rare-earths flows steady. China can also slow-roll both. That does not make Xi dominant, but it gives him room to trade cooperation for time, softer pressure, or narrower demands. Think of it less like winning a showdown and more like controlling the chokepoints. (msn.com) ### What can Trump still push for? He still has leverage of his own — tariffs, tech controls, and the threat of tighter pressure on Chinese firms tied to sensitive sectors. He can also try to turn the summit into a practical bargain: Chinese help on Iran and minerals in exchange for a more stable trade truce. But that is the hard version of the deal, because Washington wants cooperation from Beijing while also treating Beijing as its main long-term rival. (cfr.org) ### So what should we watch this week? Watch for two things, not one. First, whether the rare-earths arrangement gets extended or formalized. Second, whether the two sides say anything concrete about Iran beyond generic calls for stability. If those two areas move, the summit mattered. If they do not, then the trip was mostly stagecraft wrapped around a very real shift in leverage. (msn.com) ### Bottom line? Trump is arriving in Beijing needing help on problems that China can influence more than solve. That alone is why Xi looks stronger going in. (cfr.org) (msn.com)