AAA expects 45 million Memorial Day travelers

Memorial Day travel is shaping up to be huge this year. AAA now expects 45 million Americans to go at least 50 miles from home between Thursday, May 21, and Monday, May 25. That would edge past last year and set a new record for the holiday weekend. The surprising part is that this is happening with gas prices well above a year ago — so people are not waiting for cheaper travel, they’re just going. ### Why is this a big deal? Because Memorial Day is one of the clearest early reads on the summer travel season. If 45 million people are willing to hit the road, board flights, or book cruises now, that tells you leisure demand is still pretty sturdy. AAA’s new forecast is slightly above 2025’s level and above the old holiday benchmark, so this isn’t just “busy” — it’s record-busy. (newsroom.aaa.com) ### How many of those people are driving? Most of them. AAA expects 39.1 million people to travel by car, which works out to 87% of all Memorial Day travelers. That’s the core of the story. Air travel matters, but roads are where the volume really lands. Domestic flights are projected at 3.66 million travelers, while another 2.2 million are expected to go by bus, train, or cruise. (newsroom.aaa.com) ### So why are people still driving with gas this high? Basically, holiday travel demand is overpowering price anxiety. AAA’s live fuel tracker showed the national average for regular gas at $4.511 on May 13, 2026, versus $3.157 a year earlier. That is a big jump. But Memorial Day is a short trip for a lot of households, and short trips are easier to justify even when fuel hurts. AAA also notes that flights booked early were cheaper than last year on average, which helps explain why both roads and airports are staying busy. (newsroom.aaa.com) ### When will traffic feel worst? The ugly windows are pretty clear. INRIX traffic guidance tied to AAA’s forecast says Thursday and Friday afternoons — especially 3 p.m. to 6 p.m. — should be the heaviest congestion periods, with Monday afternoon also rough as people head home. Sunday should be the lightest traffic day, assuming nothing unusual happens on the roads. In plain English — if you leave after lunch at the start of the weekend, you’re joining the pileup. (gasprices.aaa.com) ### Are airports getting a break? A little, but not really. Air travel is still expected to rise from last year, just not as dramatically as road traffic dominates the picture. AAA says average roundtrip domestic airfare for Memorial Day bookings came in about 6% cheaper than last year, at roughly $800, mostly because many travelers booked before higher jet fuel prices started feeding through. (midstates.aaa.com) That lower booked fare helps explain why planes are still filling even as fuel costs rise elsewhere. ### What else does this tell us? It says travelers are still prioritizing experiences over perfect timing on prices. Car rentals are slightly cheaper than last year, and AAA says Thursday and Friday will also be the busiest pickup days for renters. Orlando, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Denver, and Boston are among the hottest rental markets, which fits the broader pattern — people are still spending on getaways, but often in practical, familiar ways. (newsroom.aaa.com) ### What should travelers actually do? Leave early if you’re driving. Morning beats afternoon by a lot on the busiest days. And don’t ignore the boring stuff — AAA handled more than 350,000 roadside-assistance calls over last year’s Memorial Day weekend, many for dead batteries, flat tires, and empty tanks. Record traffic plus a preventable breakdown is the worst combo imaginable. (newsroom.aaa.com) ### Bottom line? The headline is simple: Americans are traveling in record numbers for Memorial Day 2026, and they’re doing it even with expensive gas. The catch is that this looks like a road story first, not just a travel story — which means the real pain point will be highway congestion, not lack of demand. (newsroom.aaa.com)