Oil spikes, OPEC+ meets
Brent and WTI crude jumped above $110 a barrel as the Iran war and Strait of Hormuz disruptions pushed markets to price in lost supply and knocked equities lower. ( ) OPEC+ is set to meet Sunday to consider an emergency output hike intended to replace lost barrels and calm markets, though analysts warn volatility may remain. (reuters.com) The shock is already showing in emerging‑market finances — Nigeria’s sovereign fund reported a 91% fall in 2025 profits, citing US tariffs and FX revaluation as contributors. (businessday.ng)
Oil prices moved sharply on April 2: Brent settled around $109 a barrel and U.S. crude around $111 after President Trump said U.S. attacks on Iran would continue, a statement that reinforced fears the Strait of Hormuz — the main route for Middle East oil — could remain closed. (virginiabusiness.com) Ministers from the eight core OPEC+ countries are scheduled to meet on Sunday, April 5 to consider another increase in production quotas; the group already agreed a modest 206,000 barrels-per-day rise for April at its March 1 meeting. (energynow.com) (opec.org) The reason an agreed hike may not put more oil on world markets immediately is logistical: roughly one-fifth of traded crude normally transits the Strait of Hormuz, and if tankers are unable to pass the strait those additional barrels cannot reach buyers. (oilprice.com) When ministers talk about raising quotas they mean higher production targets set by the group — a “paper” increase that gives producers permission to pump more. Spare capacity, which is the extra output a producer can switch on quickly, is concentrated in some Gulf states and uneven across OPEC+; several producers face export bottlenecks or local disruptions (for example Russian output has been hit by drone attacks), so physical volumes available to markets depend on both quotas and export routes. (oilprice.com) (agbi.com) The price reaction has already been extreme: front‑month Brent and U.S. crude posted some of their largest monthly percentage gains in decades in March as traders priced in a sustained disruption, and analysts warn that reopening the strait would not instantly normalise flows because of tanker backlogs, insurance and rerouting delays. (tradingeconomics.com) (aljazeera.com) What markets will look for next is concrete evidence that barrels can move: an OPEC+ communiqué after Sunday’s meeting spelling out the size and timing of any quota change, clear signs of resumed tanker transits through Hormuz, or higher throughput via alternate export routes such as Saudi Arabia’s East‑West pipeline to Yanbu (flows there have been increased to partially offset the closure). (energynow.com) (oilprice.com)
