U.S. job growth stalls
A market note says U.S. job growth has stalled and the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4%, pointing to a softer labour market than recent months suggested. (markets.financialcontent.com) Taken on its own the report doesn't settle the path forward, but the authors say it fits a broader pattern of weaker demand combined with persistent shocks and policy uncertainty. (markets.financialcontent.com)
The March jobs report showed a labor market that is still adding workers, but more slowly than the fastest stretch of the post-pandemic rebound. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said nonfarm payrolls rose by 178,000 in March and the unemployment rate was 4.3 percent on April 3. (bls.gov) That matters because the labor market runs on two surveys that can point in slightly different directions at the same time. Payrolls count jobs reported by employers, while the unemployment rate comes from a household survey that tracks whether people are working or looking for work. (bls.gov) March hiring was concentrated in health care, construction, and transportation and warehousing, while federal government employment kept falling. Average hourly earnings rose 0.2 percent in March and 3.5 percent from a year earlier, the slowest annual wage gain since May 2021. (bls.gov; cnbc.com) Other labor data had already been showing less momentum before the March payroll report arrived. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said hires fell to 4.8 million in February, down 498,000 from January, and the hires rate slipped to 3.1 percent, the lowest since April 2020. (bls.gov) Job openings were 6.882 million in February, and quits held at 3.0 million, a sign fewer workers were leaving for better offers. Layoffs and discharges stayed at 1.7 million, which fits a market where companies are slowing hiring more than they are cutting staff. (bls.gov) Weekly unemployment claims have not yet shown a broad wave of layoffs. The Department of Labor said initial claims rose to 219,000 for the week ending April 4, while the four-week average was 209,500 and continuing claims fell to 1.794 million. (dol.gov; tradingeconomics.com) Federal Reserve officials have been describing a similar pattern in plain terms: slower hiring, modest wage growth, and more caution from employers. In the February Beige Book, the New York district said employment was flat and wage growth was modest and steady as economic activity declined modestly. (federalreserve.gov) Inflation is still part of the picture. The Consumer Price Index rose 0.9 percent in March and 3.3 percent from a year earlier, with gasoline up 21.2 percent in the month, which complicates any simple reading of softer labor demand. (bls.gov) That is why the claim that job growth has “stalled” is more an interpretation than the official government reading of March. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a gain of 178,000 jobs and a 4.3 percent unemployment rate, while the market note cited a much weaker 50,000-job figure and a 4.4 percent rate that do not match the published March release. (bls.gov; markets.financialcontent.com) For now, the clearest picture is a labor market that is cooling in stages rather than cracking all at once. Hiring has slowed, workers are quitting less often, layoffs remain contained, and the next Bureau of Labor Statistics reports will show whether March was a pause or the start of a weaker stretch. (bls.gov; bls.gov)
