Goldman Sachs warns data-centre power

Goldman Sachs said on May 20 that U.S. data-center power demand is projected to more than double to 66 gigawatts in 2027 from 31 gigawatts in 2025, as AI infrastructure buildouts accelerate. The bank said annual capacity additions are scheduled to rise to 13.6 gigawatts in 2026 and 36.3 gigawatts in 2027, compared with 6.4 gigawatts realized in 2024 and 8.5 gigawatts in 2025. The forecasts, published by Goldman Sachs Research, draw on Aterio development-schedule data and assume a 70% capacity-utilization rate. Goldman said only about 50%-60% of scheduled capacity for the next one to two years is likely to come online on time amid delays and cancellations. ### Why is a power forecast getting attention outside the utility sector? Goldman Sachs said the increase would push data centers’ share of total U.S. peak summer power demand to 8.5% in 2027 from 4.1% in 2025. That matters because the constraint is not only servers. It is also the physical package around them: grid access, dense cooling, interconnection, and the ability to deliver facilities on schedule. (goldmansachs.com) The Goldman note did not focus on trading systems specifically in the material available publicly, but the implication for latency-sensitive operators is straightforward: they compete for the same scarce inputs as AI and cloud deployments. When premium power and network-dense space tighten, the cost and availability of expansion near major connectivity hubs can change quickly. That is an inference from Goldman’s demand forecast and the supply-delay data it cited. (goldmansachs.com) ### Which numbers in the Goldman forecast matter most? The clearest figures are 31 gigawatts in 2025, 41 gigawatts in 2026, and 66 gigawatts in 2027, according to Goldman Sachs Commodities Research. Goldman said that demand path is based on an estimate that U.S. data-center capacity will reach roughly 95 gigawatts by the end of 2027, more than doubling from the end of 2025. (goldmansachs.com) Aterio’s facility-level data is central to the forecast. Goldman said the dataset tracks locations, permitting progress, construction status, official announcements, and satellite imagery. The bank also said historical completion rates fall as projects are scheduled further into the future, which is why its realized-capacity assumptions are lower than raw development schedules. (goldmansachs.com) ### Where does Goldman see the biggest strain on the grid? Goldman Sachs said regional effects will diverge. The bank flagged the Mid-Atlantic, Mid-Continent, and Northwest markets as facing elevated reliability risks, while Texas and Georgia may see a more limited impact because of plans for additional power generation. (goldmansachs.com) That regional split matters for operators that need physical proximity to exchanges, counterparties, or major network nodes. A market with nominal data-center growth is not the same as a market with timely power delivery, spare cooling capacity, and room for new cross-connects. Goldman’s public note frames that as a reliability and infrastructure-delivery issue, not just a demand story. (goldmansachs.com) ### How much of the buildout is actually expected to arrive on time? Goldman Sachs said only about 72% of data centers scheduled for activation within the following four quarters have historically gone online on time. For the next one to two years, the bank expects only about 50%-60% of scheduled capacity to come online as planned. Goldman attributed the gap in part to developers applying across multiple regions and advancing only the most favorable site. (goldmansachs.com) That means the headline buildout numbers and the usable supply picture are not the same thing. For firms that need deterministic infrastructure in the closest possible location to trading venues, the practical issue is not only future megawatts on paper but which facilities are energized, cooled, and connected when needed. That is an inference from Goldman’s completion-rate assumptions and regional risk warnings. (goldmansachs.com) ### What is the next concrete marker to watch? Goldman Sachs said the next two years are the key period, with scheduled additions of 13.6 gigawatts in 2026 and 36.3 gigawatts in 2027. The bank’s public research note, published May 20, names Hongcen Wei, Daan Struyven, and Samantha Dart as the authors of the forecast investors and infrastructure operators will be tracking. (goldmansachs.com)