Disputed Granada seat could hand Moreno's PP an absolute majority in Andalusia
- Juanma Moreno’s PP has turned Granada into the key battleground of Andalusia’s May 17 election, chasing a seventh seat that could decide solo rule. - The number is brutally simple: Andalusia’s parliament has 109 seats, 55 gives an absolute majority, and Granada allocates 13 of them. - Polls put PP around 53 to 56 seats, so one Granada gain could spare Moreno from depending on Vox.
Andalusia’s election suddenly looks like a story about one province and maybe one seat. Juanma Moreno’s PP is already expected to win the May 17 regional vote, but the real question is whether he can govern alone again. That is where Granada comes in. The party has spent the last two days flooding the province with campaign stops because a seventh PP seat there could be the difference between an outright majority and a much messier second term. ### Why is Granada suddenly so important? Granada sends 13 lawmakers to the Andalusian parliament. That is not the biggest provincial haul, but it is large enough to matter when the statewide race is tight. In 2022, the PP surged there from 3 seats to the province where it has the clearest shot at gaining one more. ### What is Moreno actually chasing? He is chasing 55 seats. Andalusia’s parliament has 109 members, so 55 is the line for an absolute majority and the ability to govern without coalition partners. Recent polling has the PP fighting to stay above the line. ### Why does one Granada seat matter so much? Because the current polling range leaves very little margin for error. If the PP lands at 53 or 54 seats statewide, it needs help. If it gets to 55 or more, Moreno can keep governing on his own. Granada is being treated as one of a handful of seats “dancing” between parties. ### Who would lose that seat if PP gains it? The target is the PSOE. Local reporting frames the disputed seventh Granada seat as one the PP could take from the Socialists, not from Vox or the smaller left parties. That matters because it is a double gain in political terms — one more seat for Moreno and one less for María Jesús Montero’s PSOE-A at the same time. ### Why has the PP gone all-in there now? Because campaigns get very local when the statewide map is mostly settled. Moreno has campaigned across Granada in the final stretch, and Alberto Núñez Feijóo also showed up there. The message is not subtle — admitting the seat calculator is open on the table. ### What does this say about the wider race? It says Moreno remains dominant, but not comfortably dominant. The PP is still far ahead of the PSOE in vote share, and the Socialists are polling near historically weak levels in Andalusia. But Vox is strong, even if the broader right still has the numbers. ### Why should anyone outside Andalusia care? Because this is one of Spain’s clearest tests of whether the PP can keep expanding as a broad governing party without being formally tied to Vox. If Moreno clears 55 on his own, he strengthens that argument inside the national center-right. If he falls short, even by one seat, the whole post-election conversation changes. The bottom line is simple — Granada is not just another campaign stop. It is the province where Moreno’s cleanest path to an absolute majority still looks real, and maybe the place where Andalusia’s next government gets decided.
