Iran Gains Middle East Advantage
Analyst Zohaib Ahmed notes that extended war benefits Iran, with UAE and Bahrain bearing attacks while Saudi Arabia remains untouched, signaling Riyadh's influence. US bases were hit undermining credibility, while Israel faces setbacks in Syria and proxy failures. Houthis shifted to 'reciprocal escalation' threats post-Iran barrage, with drone repositioning in Red Sea.
The recent escalation follows joint U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Iran that began on February 28, 2026, targeting military infrastructure and leadership. In response, Iran launched a widespread retaliatory campaign, striking U.S. military assets and civilian targets across at least eight other Middle Eastern countries. Iran's counter-attacks involved hundreds of ballistic missiles and drones, hitting targets in the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia. Civilian infrastructure was significantly impacted, with strikes damaging a terminal at Dubai International Airport, an apartment building in Bahrain, and Amazon Web Services data centers in the UAE and Bahrain. While Saudi Arabia and Iran restored diplomatic relations in a deal brokered by China in March 2023, the kingdom was not entirely spared in the recent attacks. A CIA station within the U.S. Embassy compound in Riyadh was hit by drones, and Saudi air defenses intercepted projectiles targeting the major Ras Tanura oil refinery. The Houthi campaign in the Red Sea, which began in November 2023, has involved attacks on more than 100 merchant vessels, killing at least eight seafarers and sinking four ships as of early March 2026. This forced global shipping to take longer, more expensive routes around Africa, causing a measurable decrease in global trade. The United States maintains over 40,000 troops across roughly 10 countries in the region. Recent Iranian strikes have hit numerous U.S. military outposts, including Ali Al Salem Air Base in Kuwait and Al Dhafra Air Base in the UAE. An attack on a logistical support unit at Kuwait's Shuaiba port resulted in the first known U.S. troop deaths in the retaliatory strikes. In Syria, the strategic landscape shifted after the fall of the Assad regime in December 2024. Israel now maintains a military presence in the UN buffer zone in the Golan Heights, citing the need to prevent Hezbollah from gaining a foothold and concerns over Turkish military entrenchment.
