S&P dip historically buys
Citadel’s Scott Rubner flagged that since 2020 there have been 13 episodes where forward P/E dropped below 20x—each preceded a positive forward return, suggesting historical buying opportunities after valuation dips. The observation is being used to frame conversations about tactical entry points amid current volatility. (x.com/aakashgupta/status/2037766137363263525)
S&P 500 forward P/E sits near 19.7x, below its five‑year average of 20.1x and in the 6th percentile of its one‑year range, the weakest reading since April 2025. (tradingpedia.com)) When the index’s forward P/E has previously dropped under 20x, the following 30 trading days have shown an average return of about 3.5%, a median return near 6.4%, and positive performance roughly 75% of the time. (tradingpedia.com)) Rubner formally removed a tactical bearish call and flagged scope for a rebound into mid‑March in a client note dated March 4, 2026, citing washed‑out sentiment and volatility normalization as catalysts. (bloomberg.com) Citadel’s flow figures show heavy retail participation: January was the platform’s largest net buying month on record, year‑to‑date net notional trading on down days ran about 2.5x larger than up days (and rose to ~4.3x in February), underscoring persistent dip‑buying demand. (investing.com)) Rubner also highlighted a compression between growth and broad market valuations — Nasdaq‑100 forward P/E near 21.7x and the Nasdaq–S&P forward P/E spread tightened to roughly 2.0x (the narrowest since December 2018), a regime that historically coincided with Nasdaq outperformance over the next 30 sessions. (tradingpedia.com)
