HSBC flags $207B OpenAI gap

OpenAI and Microsoft reset their partnership on April 27, ending Microsoft’s exclusive license to OpenAI technology and loosening Azure’s lock on OpenAI products. (cnbc.com) The new agreement lets OpenAI serve customers across any cloud provider, including Amazon and Google, while Microsoft remains OpenAI’s primary cloud provider. (cnbc.com) Microsoft said its investment in OpenAI’s for-profit arm is worth about $135 billion, equal to roughly 27% of the company on an as-converted diluted basis. (cnbc.com) OpenAI will keep paying Microsoft a revenue share through 2030, and CNBC reported the percentage remains 20%, but those payments are now subject to a total cap. (cnbc.com) The revised contract also removes one of the strangest clauses in artificial intelligence finance: Microsoft no longer has to decide what happens if OpenAI says it has reached artificial general intelligence, or AGI. (cnbc.com) That matters because OpenAI’s business is no longer just a software story. It is a power-and-data-center story, with multiyear commitments tied to chips, cloud capacity, and new Stargate sites. (datacenterdynamics.com) HSBC analysts said in a November 2025 note that OpenAI would need $207 billion of new financing by 2030, even after raising their revenue forecast by 4%. (datacenterdynamics.com) That HSBC model pointed to a $250 billion Microsoft cloud contract, a reported $300 billion Oracle commitment by 2030, and a $38 billion Amazon Web Services deal over seven years. (datacenterdynamics.com) Reuters, via The Economic Times, said HSBC projected nearly $500 billion in operating losses by 2030, with annual revenue reaching about $213 billion but free cash flow staying negative. (economictimes.indiatimes.com) The same reporting said HSBC expected about $792 billion in cloud and infrastructure spending between late 2025 and 2030 and total compute needs of roughly $1.4 trillion by 2033. (economictimes.indiatimes.com) OpenAI and Microsoft are still tied together through 2030 and beyond, but the April 27 rewrite shows both sides preparing for a market where OpenAI needs more capital and more clouds. (cnbc.com) (datacenterdynamics.com)