Stocks, yields, and commodity snapshot
S&P 500 earnings yield just popped to 5.06% — the highest since May 2025 — even as the market faces correction pressure from geopolitical noise (seekingalpha.com). Treasury moves show the 10‑year around 4.43% (up ~27 bps) and the 2‑year near 3.90%, while commodities are volatile — WTI around $100/barrel, gold +5% and Bitcoin down ~25% YTD — a mixed macro backdrop for ETFs and fixed‑income strategies (x.com).
Major data vendors diverge on the size of the earnings‑yield move: Multpl’s monthly S&P earnings‑yield series shows about 3.61% for March 26, 2026 (multpl.com). (multpl.com) FactSet’s Earnings Insight shows estimated S&P Q1 2026 earnings growth at 13.0% and documents upward and downward EPS revisions since December 31, which helps explain why different earnings‑based measures can move independently of index prices (factset.com). (factset.com) Equities sold off that week: the S&P 500 fell 1.7% on March 27, closing at 6,368.85, and the move capped a fifth straight weekly loss that left the index about 8.7% below its January high. ( ). (markets.ft.com) Treasury yields climbed into levels last seen in mid‑2025: the Fed’s DGS10 series recorded a 10‑year yield of 4.42% on March 26, 2026, while Bloomberg reported the two‑year briefly touched about 4.03% intraday before settling near 3.90% on March 27. ( ). (fred.stlouisfed.org) Commodities saw acute moves tied to Middle East tensions: TradingEconomics shows WTI trading around $101.99/barrel on March 31 after several sessions above $100, and markets linked the oil surge to renewed inflation and rate‑outlook concerns. ( ). (tradingeconomics.com) Safe‑haven flows and crypto weakness diverged: Reuters/CNBC reported spot gold near roughly $4,578–$4,611 per ounce at month‑end after a January peak above $5,000, while Bitcoin was roughly 20% lower year‑to‑date through mid‑March and traded in the mid‑$60k range in late March. ( ). (fixedincome.fidelity.com)
