Bitcoin Buy Signal Flashes

While some technical indicators like the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) have shown bullish crossovers, others present a conflicting view. Just days prior, the same MACD indicator had flipped bearish, a signal historically associated with market downturns. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart has also recently been in oversold territory, suggesting strong bearish momentum. This technical indecisiveness comes after a period of extreme volatility. Bitcoin is down roughly 50% from its all-time high of $126,080 in October 2025. The market saw a cascade of forced liquidations in early February 2026, with one day hitting a record $3.2 billion in realized losses as traders rushed to exit. Broader macroeconomic pressures are weighing on the market. A key catalyst for recent declines was the announcement of a 15% global tariff rate increase by President Trump, which triggered a sell-off in risk assets. This has reinforced Bitcoin's recent high correlation with tech stocks, with both declining in lockstep. Despite the downturn, institutional activity shows signs of life. After five consecutive weeks of redemptions totaling $3.8 billion, US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $257.7 million on February 24th. This renewed buying from "smart money" coincided with the Fear & Greed Index sitting in "extreme fear," a divergence that can precede short-term rallies. A massive short squeeze contributed to a recent surge, with Bitcoin jumping over 6% on February 25th, its strongest single session since May 2025. The rally pushed the price back toward a heavy resistance band in the mid-$70,000 range, a key pivot zone for the month. Key support levels are now being closely watched between $60,000 and $63,000. Analysts note that a decisive break below this zone could trigger further liquidation-driven selling, with the next major structural support seen around $54,000.