Chicago Council poll shows hawkish US
- Donald Trump heads to Beijing this week as a new Chicago Council/NPR/Ipsos poll shows most Americans now see China as a rival, not partner. - The sharpest number is 56% to 29% — Americans say China’s economic power worries them more than its military power right now. - That matters because voters want China handled toughly, but they also want tariffs lowered if a deal cuts prices.
China policy is in an awkward place right now. Americans sound hawkish about Beijing, but they also do not want an all-out economic break. That tension matters this week because Donald Trump is heading to Beijing for a May 14-15 summit with Xi Jinping, and the White House is bringing a business-heavy delegation along for the ride. ### What changed today? The new piece of news is the poll. Chicago Council, NPR, and Ipsos released fresh survey results on May 12 showing that Americans mostly see China as a rival or adversary, and mostly as an economic threat rather than a military one. At the same time, majorities say the tariffs have been bad for both the U.S. and Chinese economies. (globalaffairs.org) ### How hawkish is “hawkish”? Pretty hawkish — but not in a simple Cold War way. By a five-to-two margin, Americans describe China as a rival or adversary rather than an ally or necessary partner. And 78% say China wants to play a dominant role in the world. But the public’s main fear is commercial power, supply chains, prices, and leverage — not an imminent shooting war. The split is 56% naming China’s economic power as the bigger threat versus 29% naming its military power. (globalaffairs.org) ### So do Americans want a harder trade fight? Not exactly. This is the catch. The same polling says Americans think tariffs on Chinese imports have been a lose-lose. Majorities say those tariffs hurt the U.S. economy, hurt the Chinese economy, and raise costs at home. Even more telling, 72% support reducing tariffs if China buys more U.S. agricultural exports. Basically, the public wants toughness with a discount. (globalaffairs.org) ### Why does that matter for Trump? Because it narrows his room to improvise. Trump can go into Beijing talking tough and he will have public opinion behind him on rivalry, dominance, and distrust. But if he comes back with more price pressure and no visible concession, the same public mood gets a lot less friendly. That is why Republicans like House Oversight Chair James Comer are already talking up the value of a trade deal before the meeting even starts. (globalaffairs.org) ### Why bring CEOs to a geopolitical summit? Because the administration wants deliverables that look concrete. Trump has invited executives including Elon Musk, Tim Cook, Larry Fink, Kelly Ortberg, Jane Fraser, David Solomon, Cristiano Amon, and others to join the trip. That signals a summit built around business deals, purchase agreements, and market access as much as grand strategy. It also suggests the White House wants something it can point to fast — the diplomatic version of bringing a receipt. (globalaffairs.org) ### Is everyone in Washington aligned on that? No — and that is important. Reuters reported earlier that the White House had considered a smaller CEO delegation than in 2017, partly because officials were split over how much to emphasize commerce versus “managed trade” and how high to set expectations. So even before the plane takes off, there is an internal argument over whether this summit is supposed to stabilize the relationship or squeeze it harder. (cnbc.com) ### What is China trying to signal? Beijing is pushing the stability message. Ambassador Xie Feng has framed a steady U.S.-China relationship as valuable not just for both countries but for global peace and prosperity. That is classic Chinese pre-summit positioning — present China as the ballast, cast the relationship itself as the thing worth protecting, and leave Washington looking like the side choosing volatility if talks go badly. (usnews.com) ### What could still blow this up? The agenda is much wider than tariffs. Trump and Xi are expected to discuss AI, export controls, Taiwan, and the Iran war. Days before the summit, the State Department sanctioned three Chinese companies it said helped Iran’s military with satellite imagery. So the trip is happening under a trade banner, but the real backdrop is strategic mistrust on several fronts at once. (newsweek.com) ### Bottom line? The U.S. public is not asking for friendship with China. But it is also not asking for endless pain in the name of toughness. That leaves Trump chasing the hardest version of the deal — one that looks strong, lowers costs, and does not look like a climbdown. (globalaffairs.org) (cnbc.com)
