Europe’s looming jet‑fuel squeeze

Europe’s airports are warning that a fuel problem usually hidden behind the fence could start showing up on departure boards within weeks. Airports Council International Europe told the European Union that if the Strait of Hormuz does not reopen in a significant and stable way within three weeks, Europe could face a “systemic jet fuel shortage.” (cnbc.com) The Strait of Hormuz is the narrow sea lane at the mouth of the Persian Gulf where tankers carry oil and fuel out to the rest of the world. The United States Energy Information Administration says about 20.9 million barrels a day moved through it in the first half of 2025, equal to about 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption. (eia.gov) Europe is exposed because it does not make enough jet fuel for all of its flights. Airports Council International Europe says the Gulf supplies about 50% of Europe’s jet-fuel imports, so a blockage there does not just raise prices in Europe, it directly cuts physical supply. (wam.ae) This is already moving from theory to operations in Italy. Bloomberg reported on April 5 that airports including Bologna, Milan Linate, Treviso, and Venice introduced fuel restrictions, with priority given to medical, state, and long-haul flights. (bloomberg.com) Those limits matter because short-haul networks are built like bus routes, with aircraft landing, refueling, and leaving again on tight turns. When fuel is rationed at one stop, airlines either tanker extra fuel from another airport, which adds weight and cost, or cut flights they cannot reliably refuel. (euronews.com) The timing is bad because Europe can scrape through April on existing stocks, but traders say May is when the cushion starts to thin out. Bloomberg reported on March 31 that Europe’s supplies looked adequate for April, while warning that the picture could change in May as stockpiles run down. (bloomberg.com) Summer makes the whole system less forgiving. Airlines schedule their biggest flying programs for June, July, and August, so there are more departures, fuller planes, and less slack to swap aircraft, skip rotations, or wait for delayed fuel deliveries. (aci-europe.org) Airports Council International Europe put the economic stakes in unusually blunt terms. The group says air transport supports €851 billion in European gross domestic product and 14 million jobs, which is why it is asking Brussels for emergency monitoring of jet-fuel supply and faster work on backup options. (wam.ae) Passengers usually notice a fuel squeeze in three places first: fewer frequencies, higher fares, and more last-minute schedule changes. Fuel is one of the biggest airline costs even in normal months, and a shortage turns it from an expense problem into a slot-by-slot triage problem. (cnbc.com) That is why airport groups are talking about jet fuel now, in April, instead of waiting for July queues at the gate. If the Strait of Hormuz stays disrupted through late April and into May, Europe’s summer aviation crunch may start with tankers at sea long before it shows up as cancellations on land. (euronews.com)