Fed funds forecast holds at 3.75%
- Federal Reserve officials were set Wednesday to leave the federal funds target unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75% in Jerome Powell’s likely final meeting. - CME FedWatch showed traders assigning a 100% probability to no rate move, keeping the effective policy path clustered near 3.75%. - Thursday’s first-quarter gross domestic product release follows within hours, tightening the market’s focus on Powell’s language. (bea.gov)
The Federal Reserve was set Wednesday to leave its benchmark rate at 3.50% to 3.75% in what is likely Jerome Powell’s final meeting as chair. (cbsnews.com) (federalreserve.gov) The policy decision was scheduled for 2 p.m. Eastern on April 29, followed by Powell’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. Eastern. Powell’s chair term ends May 15 after eight years leading the central bank. (cbsnews.com) Markets were not looking for a surprise on rates. CME FedWatch showed a 100% probability on Tuesday that the target range would stay at 3.50% to 3.75%. (cmegroup.com) (cbsnews.com) That leaves the statement and Powell’s wording as the live variable for traders. CNBC reported investors were watching whether officials leaned harder on inflation that remains above the Fed’s 2% goal. (cnbc.com) The federal funds rate is the overnight rate banks charge each other, and it sets the floor for borrowing costs across mortgages, credit cards and business loans. The Fed has kept that target at 3.50% to 3.75% since its March 18 meeting after earlier cuts in 2024 and 2025. (federalreserve.gov) (cbsnews.com) The timing is tight. The Bureau of Economic Analysis is due to publish its advance estimate for first-quarter 2026 gross domestic product at 8:30 a.m. Eastern on Thursday, April 30. (bea.gov) That schedule compresses the market’s read on growth and policy into less than 24 hours. Traders get the Fed’s rate decision and press conference on Wednesday afternoon, then fresh GDP data the next morning. (federalreserve.gov) (bea.gov) The personnel backdrop is adding another layer. CBS News reported Kevin Warsh is expected by some economists to be confirmed in time for the June Federal Open Market Committee meeting. (cbsnews.com) So the market setup on April 29 is narrow but not quiet: no move on rates is the base case, while every adjective in Powell’s final scheduled press conference is being parsed for the June handoff. (cmegroup.com) (cnbc.com)
