China’s recovery remains uneven
An AFP survey suggests China’s economy probably grew faster in Q1, helped by exports, even as household demand stayed weak and the property sector continued to drag. (wyomingnews.com). Brookings notes Beijing’s new Five‑Year Plan aims to push China up the value chain, but that strategic shift doesn’t remove short‑term vulnerabilities from weak domestic demand and property distress. (brookings.edu)
China’s economy likely grew faster in the first three months of 2026, but the pickup came mainly from exports while spending at home stayed soft. (france24.com) Analysts surveyed by Agence France-Presse put first-quarter growth at 4.8% from a year earlier, up from 4.5% in the last quarter of 2025, ahead of official data due Thursday, April 16. (france24.com) The export side has held up. China’s customs data showed March exports rose 2.5% from a year earlier to $321.0 billion, even as the pace slowed from the first two months of 2026. (english.customs.gov.cn) Household demand has looked weaker. Retail sales rose 2.8% in January and February from a year earlier, down from 4.0% in the same period of 2025, while industrial output climbed 6.3%. (cnbc.com) Property is still the biggest drag. Real-estate investment fell 11.1% in January and February, and official price data showed new-home prices in 70 cities fell 0.28% in February from January. (cnbc.com) (bloomberg.com) That mix leaves China with what Fitch Ratings called a “two-speed economy” in 2026: strong external demand on one side, subdued domestic demand on the other. Fitch said weak consumer confidence, deflationary pressure and the property downturn were likely to keep growth under pressure this year. (fitchratings.com) Beijing’s longer plan is not to go back to the old model. Brookings said the new Fifteenth Five-Year Plan, released in early March, puts technology and innovation at the center as China tries to move from low-end manufacturing to higher-end production in areas such as artificial intelligence, robotics and semiconductors. (brookings.edu) That strategy does not solve the short-term imbalance. Brookings said China still faces deflation, weak consumption, demographic pressure and the lingering effects of a collapsed real-estate market even as it pushes harder into advanced industry. (brookings.edu) Other forecasters are describing the same split. The Asian Development Bank said on April 10 that exports and investment in strategic and high-tech sectors should support growth in 2026, but subdued household consumption and a prolonged property downturn will keep weighing on the economy. (adb.org) So the near-term story is not a clean rebound. China is still growing near its official target, but the parts of the economy that matter most for a self-sustaining recovery — households and housing — remain weak. (france24.com) (adb.org)
